美東時間2023年4月6日-8日，第十五屆哥倫比亞大學中國峰會即將召開，喜馬拉雅資本執(zhí)行董事兼首席運營官常勁先生也將與會，參與華人影響力分論壇的討論。

　　這兩年時間過得飛快，猶記得2021年4月14日，芒格書院的公眾號正式上線，而就在幾天前的4月10日，在第十三屆哥倫比亞中國商業(yè)大會中，李錄先生和格林沃爾德教授就價值投資在中國這個話題，進行了精彩的爐邊對話。

　　這兩年來，大家對價值投資的知與行，是否有所精進？

　　本次推文就帶大家重溫一下李錄先生與格林沃爾德教授的這次對話。

　　中英對照完整文本轉發(fā)自成甲老師公眾號（PKM100)。訪談內容分為三個部分：

　　一、李錄價值投資理念與哲學發(fā)展

　　1、李錄價值投資的哲學和理念有何變化？

　　2、李錄和其他價值投資者之間有什么區(qū)別？

　　3、投資者應該是專才還是通才？

　　4、價值投資者新人應該接受什么樣的教育？

　　5、李錄如何回顧看待自己過往的人生決策？

　　二、價值投資研究公司相關的方法

　　1、好公司的特點和估值方式

　　2、好公司獲得持續(xù)競爭優(yōu)勢的因素有哪些？

　　3、李錄在挑選要投資的公司時考慮哪些因素？

　　4、投資中，如何看待公司管理層?

　　三、對宏觀市場環(huán)境的分析與評論

　　1、今天市場的情況像過往當中的哪一個階段呢？

　　2、如何應對宏觀環(huán)境的各種危機?

　　3、如何理解亞洲尤其是中國市場？

　　4、新興科技是否會吸引李錄這樣的價值投資者？

　　5、如何看待美國亞裔群體的生存現狀？

　　主持人Bruce：

　　Live streaming from Columbia business School in New York city.My name is Bruce.Welcome to the final session of the 13th Columbia China business conference.Home to value investing,Columbia business school is at the forefront of the theoretical development and practices of value investing.

　　這里是紐約哥倫比亞商學院的現場直播，我是Bruce。歡迎各位出席哥倫比亞中國商業(yè)論壇的最后一場討論。哥倫比亞大學商學院是價值投資的發(fā)源地，也是價值投資理論發(fā)展和實踐的前沿。

　　Given the ever changing global dynamics and market uncertainties,what are the potential advancements on unwavering fundamentals of value investing?How should practitioners realize about investing in China?

　　面臨瞬息萬變的全球局勢和市場的不確定性，價值投資的基本思想和方法有何可能的改進？實踐者如何在中國實現價值投資？

　　Joining us today are Professor Bruce Greenwald and Mr.Li Lu.

　　今天參加我們論壇的嘉賓是Bruce Greenwald教授和李錄先生。

　　Professor Bruce Greenwald is the founding director of the Heilbrunn Center for Graham and Dodd Investing at Columbia business school.It& #39;s a leading voice in value investing.

　　Bruce Greenwald教授是哥倫比亞學商學院哥雷厄姆和多德投資法海爾布倫中心的創(chuàng)始主任，他是一位價值投資的主要倡導者。

　　Mr.Li Lu is the founder and chairman of Himalaya Capital,a multi-billion dollar investment firm that primarily focus on long-term investment opportunities in Asia and the US.He& #39;s a distinguishing alumnus of Columbia,and Mr.Li Lu currently serves as a member of the board of trustees of Columbia University.Mr.Li Lu has in-depth knowledge about the Chinese market.His insights are trusted by investment legends like Buffett and Munger.

　　李錄先生是喜馬拉雅資本的創(chuàng)始人兼董事長，喜馬拉雅資本是一家管理著上百億美元資產的投資公司，主要專注于亞洲和美國的長期投資機會。李錄先生也是哥倫比亞大學的杰出校友，他在哥大同時獲得了三個學位，他現在還是哥大董事會的成員。

　　Professor Greenwald routinely won plaudits for his classes and has trained a generation of value investors,including Mr.Li Lu himself.Mr.Li Lu has in-depth knowledge about the Chinese market.His insights are trusted by investment legends like Buffett and Munger.

　　Bruce Greenwald教授在哥大商學院開辦的價值投資課程一直受到學生們的追捧，并培養(yǎng)了一代的價值投資者，其中就包括李錄先生本人。李錄先生對中國市場有著深入的了解，他對中國市場的洞見得到了巴菲特和芒格等投資傳奇人物的認可。

　　Now,imagine yourself stepping into the most overcrowded investment classroom at one of the best business schools across the globe.Welcome professor Greenwald and Mr.Li.

　　現在，想象你自己身處世界上最好的商學院最擁擠的投資課堂上，讓我們歡迎Bruce Greenwald教授和李先生。

　　李錄價值投資理念與哲學發(fā)展

　　1、李錄價值投資的哲學和理念有何變化？

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　I think this is gonna be a rare privilege for everybody.I& #39;ve only known Li Lu for more than 20 years and not only is he a great investor,but he& #39;s a great conversationalist.So why don& #39;t we just start out by talking about how your investment philosophy has changed?Because value investing is,after all,always an evolving field,since you began the field,literally,I think I would say,25 years ago?20 years ago?

　　(Mr.Li Lu:More like 28,hahaha.)

　　How time flies!So how has it evolved?How have you been influenced by people like Charlie Munger and so on?Go ahead.

　　這次對談對大家來說都是非常難得的機會，我認識李錄二十多年了，他不僅是一個頂級投資人，也是一個很好的談話對象。首先我想請你跟大家分享一下，從你接觸和學習價值投資到實踐的這20多年中，伴隨著價值投資理念的進化，你的投資哲學與理論發(fā)生過怎樣的變化呢？像查理·芒格等這樣的價值投資者是如何影響你的？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well so before I started,I just want to,first of all,thank you for all the organizers of this great conferences.I mean,look at all the speakers,they are just really unbelievable.The quality of the student has dramatically improved since I was the student there,so thank you for all for that wonderful work of putting together this great conferences.

　　首先我想感謝這次大會的主辦者（哥大商學院中國學生會）！我看了大會的議程，這次論壇受邀嘉賓的規(guī)格之高令人難以置信，說明今天哥大商學院學生的質量與我當年相比已經有了戲劇性的提升！非常感謝你們做出的所有工作，才將所有的要素匯聚在一起，辦成了這么棒的一個論壇。我非常的榮幸和高興受邀來跟Bruce Greenwald教授一起參加這場討論。

　　In fact,I got into this field really because of Professor Green Greenwald’s class.I think that,you know,basically you got Buffett to come to speak to a student rally,roughly 28 years ago.And it was really that first lecture that really got me into this field.So thank you so much.

　　我走上價值投資之路，其實就是因為當時聽了布魯斯·格林伍德教授的一堂價值投資課。我還清楚記得，那是在28年前，布魯斯·格林伍德教授請來巴菲特先生給學生上課。就是因為我當年在您的課堂上聽了巴菲特先生的演講，從此走上價值投資這條路。所以我太感謝教授您了。

　　And of course,I later,as a business school student,took all of the courses that Professor Green Greenwald offered and learned a great deal,made a lot of money too,so thank you.

　　當然，后來我就轉到哥大商學院學習，修完了布魯斯·格林伍德教授教的所有課程，學到很多東西，這讓我賺了很多錢。所以我特別感謝您，布魯斯·格林伍德教授，當然也感謝商學院。（笑）

　　Yeah,So the philosophy is that,it is you know uh relatively simple,the practice is really hard.So I wouldn& #39;t say the philosophy really evolved all that much for me.Before I got really exposed to value investing through Buffett& #39;s lecture at Professor Bruce Greenwald& #39;s class,I think my whole approach to life was pretty much a set along similar lines,and so there& #39;s not much of a jump for me.

　　價值投資知易行難，道理很簡單，實踐卻很難。我不能說價值投資理論本身發(fā)生過多大的變化。其實在我聽巴菲特先生在您價值投資課所做演講之前，我在生活中為人處世的基本原則就和價值投資的想法是基本一致的，因此對我本人而言，并沒有什么巨大的變化。

　　The idea of uh buying something at a discount for something that really worth more,is simply intelligent.So I would say that almost all intelligent investing involves some kind of value investing.And now the difference is it is that your focus on value evolves over time.And to different individuals,they tend to focus on different areas of that.

　　這種以較低的價格、買有更高價值的東西的做法，本身就很聰明，我認為所有聰明的投資方法都會某種程度地涉及價值投資的理念，差別就在于人們對價值的關注點會隨著時間演進變化，不同的價值投資者對價值的關注點不太一樣。

　　For me,when I first started as a value investor,this is now 27 or 28 years ago,when I bought my first stock,I don& #39;t really know much about business.I know I was born and raised in China during the Cultural Revolution.There was not much of a private business or open market economy back then.So I have to learn everything anew.

　　對我來說，自28年前我開始了價值投資。其實當我購買第一只股票的時候，對商業(yè)的了解并不多。我在中國出生，并成長于六七十年代，那時并沒有多少私人的商業(yè)行為和開放的市場經濟，因此，我需要從頭學習商業(yè)相關的所有內容。

　　So at the beginning,obviously look for value primarily on the balance sheet,in the classic style of Benjamin Graham,looking for a cigarette butt,looking for the last puff basically,looking for statistically cheap businesses,and ignore what the business really is,and that served me well.

　　一開始，我主要是踐行本杰明·格雷厄姆的經典風格，埋頭在資產負債表里尋找一些有價值的“煙蒂股”（企業(yè)價格低于流動資產價值的股票）。巴菲特把這種投資策略比喻為撿煙頭——像在路上找人家丟棄不要的煙頭，短得你只能抽上最后一口了，但是價格便宜啊，免費，不用花一分錢。（那時的我）基本上只是在找這種統(tǒng)計學意義上的便宜的生意，雖然我靠這個過的還不錯，但卻忽略了股票背后生意的本質是什么。

　　And that over time I evolved into understanding smaller businesses.And because I was just intensively curious about how businesses run,so much so,I actually involved into health funding or co-creating a dozen or so early-stage start-up companies.And that experience has taught me a lot about how business run,what constitute a good or bad or mediocre businesses.

　　但隨著時間的推移，我對商業(yè)是如何運作的有了強烈的興趣，我開始逐漸更理解相對小一些公司的商業(yè)模式。實際上，我參與投資或共同創(chuàng)建了十幾個早期創(chuàng)業(yè)公司。這段經歷教會了我很多關于商業(yè)運作的知識，并了解到哪些要素構成一個好生意、差生意或平庸的生意。

　　And so over time I evolved into looking for really good businesses,small maybe,but really good business.and then that lead me to look for good businesses in Asia,and eventually for businesses with enduring competitive advantage with some long growth trajectory ahead.

　　后來，我開始更多地關注那些小而美的生意，而這一切都引領我去發(fā)掘在亞洲市場的好投資機會。最終，我找到了一些有持續(xù)增長與競爭優(yōu)勢的公司。

　　And so the places we& #39;re looking for value,evolves over time.But the basic philosophy has pretty much remained the same.It& #39;s just our core competence expanded over time.

　　我們尋找價值投資的重點，隨著時間在不斷演進，但背后的基礎邏輯其實是永恒的，變化的是我們的核心競爭力在不斷擴展。

　　Now I& #39;ve been very fortunate to be influenced at the very beginning by the investment giant,Buffett and Munger.And later on,I was really really lucky,and it was really just a stroke of luck,that you can& #39;t even make it up in fictions,that I strike a good connection with Charlie Munger,and became an investor in 2003 or 2004,and we& #39;ve been partners.Since then,basically,he has been a mentor,an investor,a business partner and a great friend all this years.

　　我特別幸運的是能夠在職業(yè)發(fā)展早期就受到投資大師巴菲特和芒格的影響。后來的我更是非常非常幸運，獲得了小說都不敢寫的一系列眷顧——我得以和查理·芒格先生建立很好的關系，并在2003或2004年的時候，芒格先生成為了我的投資人，直到現在我們仍然是合作伙伴。不僅如此，除了投資人與商業(yè)伙伴，芒格先生也一直是我持續(xù)多年的良師益友。

　　And for many many years we& #39;ve been,we have dinner every Tuesday night.That& #39;s my version of a"Tuesday night with Charlie"every week(similar to"Tuesday afternoon with Morrie").That lasted for years until just right around the pandemic,and we talk a lot more.

　　多年以來，我們每周二都會共進晚餐，聊很多話題，這成為了我個人版本的“與芒格相約周二晚”。這一慣例持續(xù)了很多很多年，直到疫情來臨。

　　So obviously I had a great deal of influence by him.But I have to say that the greatest influence from Charlie,was really beyond just the investment.He was more of a role model and the way he conducted himself in real life.Now,I think for every profession,everybody,it is wonderful to have models in life.And often we find role model among the eminent dead,because it is safer.

　　顯而易見，查理·芒格對我影響至深。他對我最大的影響，其實遠超投資領域。他的為人處世，一直是我的榜樣和標桿。我認為每個人的生命里能有一個榜樣是特別好的。通常我們會在逝去的大師里尋找榜樣，因為這樣更安全。

　　It is pretty risky to pick a role model who is still alive and there is always a risk of disappointment.But in my case,I got really really lucky in the sense that my role model never failed me and instead continued to inspire me right into his 97th year.

　　的確，尋找一個活著的榜樣是有讓自己失望的風險。但對我而言，我非常非常幸運。因為我的榜樣在他97歲的人生中從不曾讓我失望，并且還能一直激勵我。

　　And so mostly it is really basically his attitude towards life and his ability to keep equanimity in a sense,in the face of ups and downs,successes or setbacks,and I witness quite a bit of them over the 17 years or so we& #39;ve been working closely,and to maintain that rational composure,common sensical approach to all problems,investment or life.That is extraordinarily hard.And it is a bit of,I guess,against every natural tendencies.

　　他對我的影響更多的是他的生活態(tài)度，面對生活的波瀾而保持榮辱不驚的能力。在過去超過十七年的緊密合作中，我見證了他不少的起起落落，但他的生活哲學與能力，總能讓他時刻保持鎮(zhèn)定。不論面對任何困難，關于投資或者人生，要維持理性、邏輯和鎮(zhèn)定是極難的，這多少有點反人性。

　　I& #39;ve really watched closely,up close and in person how Charlie had conducted himself and it is in their regard that he is probably the most influential person in my life.And I have been very,very lucky in that regard.

　　而我有這個殊榮能近距離地觀察他是如何處事待人，的確非常幸運，我也受他影響最深。

　　2、李錄和其他價值投資者之間有什么區(qū)別？

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　But then what other dimensions do you do things differently today than other investors who are less successful?

　　你自己如何評估，相較于其他投資人或者價值投資者，你的投資方法有什么樣的獨特之處？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　I don& #39;t spend my time study a hundred people doing that that way.We spend most of our time studying industries,studying specific companies.We& #39;re looking for the ones who are really successful,trying to answer what really makes them successful?Can that success be continued?

　　我其實不花時間研究其他投資者的是怎么做的，我們把絕大多數時間花費在研究行業(yè)以及其中特定的公司上。我們在尋找那些已經成功的企業(yè)，并找出他們真正成功的原因，以及這樣的成功是不是可以延續(xù)？

　　And some of the time we have answers,and some of the time we don& #39;t,we just continue to really study them and continue edit until we have an answer.

　　有的時候我們能夠找到答案，有的時候找不到。我們能做的只是持續(xù)地研究，學習，直到找到答案。

　　And then one thing that we need to bet is always important for us is this intellectual honesty.Basically knowing that we really don& #39;t know,what we do know and we don& #39;t.In other words if you claim a circle of confidence.You have to understand the ash of the confidence.You have to know what is false in what is close call.You have to be very honest with yourself.

　　有一點對于我們而言一直是非常重要的，就是“對知識的誠實”。說白了就是明白你知道什么和不知道什么。你要有一個能力圈，并且明白它的邊界在哪。你必須要了解一家公司的優(yōu)勢在哪里，包括哪一些是可以預測的，哪一些是看不到的，你必須對自己保持這樣的誠實。

　　So we really insist on knowing inside and out the particular businesses and to the point where we are able to predict its outcome,for example,in the next 10 years.At least I want to know at the worst case scenario,what the business would look like 10 years from now.That& #39;s what we do have a long term horizon in terms.We can& #39;t really predict that forever.But I want to see what I can predict with a very high degree of confidence in 90%of confidence that at a minimum with the business will look like in 10 years and then all different contingencies.

　　所以我們堅持要把一個生意的里里外外都了解得非常清楚，直到我們有能力預測它的發(fā)展。舉個例子，我們至少希望了解在最糟糕的境遇下，一個公司十年后變成什么樣？因此，我們可以說是具備了長期視野，雖然不可能預測得到永遠的未來，但我們希望看到自己至少有90%的把握預測未來的十年里，在各種偶發(fā)事件之下，一個公司到底會發(fā)展如何？

　　And so and most of the time but we don& #39;t have an answer.We just keep studying and keep at it.And sometimes we study for years and years before you see.we really get it and then we will wait for price to come to our striking zone and a lot of the time they don& #39;t.And so that makes our selection very,very difficult.so when we do select them,we tend to really own them for very very long time.

　　絕大多數時候，其實我們并沒有答案。我們只是持續(xù)地研究，學習。直到經過了多年不為人知的研究學習之后，我們會真正懂得其中的關鍵，并等待價格來到我們能買入的“擊球區(qū)”。但很多時候價格并不在合適的區(qū)間，這讓我們的選擇變得非常非常困難。但一旦我們選擇買入后，我們會很長時間地持有這些公司。

　　Because the business is where they are really good and we really fully understand and are very rare.And how do you mean when you really do you understand,so anything that we would own we would buy a lot more as they go down.

　　因為真正優(yōu)質而我們又足夠了解的生意是極其稀有的。當我們真正了解一家公司時，這意味著什么呢？這意味著任何我們選擇持有的標的，當其價格下跌時，我們會持續(xù)購入。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　How do you start?

　　你們具體會怎樣開始？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Yeah,if they go,that& #39;s 50%is 60%of the brand we buy more.So that really gives you a measure of our definition of whether we understand them.

　　當價格下跌百分之五十甚至百分之六十時，我們會更大規(guī)模的增持。這樣的舉動，就是我們對一個公司是否足夠了解的界定標準。

　　3、投資者應該是專才還是通才？

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Do you prefer to be a generalist or a specialist investor?And would one work better in the Chinese market than the other?

　　作為投資者，你傾向于當一個通才還是專才？在中國市場做投資，哪一種能把投資做的更好？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well in a sense,you always want to be a generalist,uh,in terms of a student of businesses.And you’re interested,you know,you have to have to be good at this game,you have to have the innate intensive curiosity about the business,all kinds of businesses.It doesn’t mean you’re going to really get to the bottom of it.Oftentimes you don’t if you’re honest with yourself.

　　從某種方面來講，作為學習商業(yè)的學生，最好是方方面面都有所了解，如果你想要做一個好的投資者的話，你必須要對各種各樣的行業(yè)有著強烈的好奇心，這并不是說一定要對每個行業(yè)都要有非常透徹的了解。坦白地講，這常常是做不到的。也很難對每個行業(yè)那么了解，我們還是要對自己誠實一些。

　　But by the time you really get into the companies you really decided to invest,you really better become a true specialist.And to the point you really know,hopefully better than anybody in the world you can find,including the top management team,the top management team,because they manage the company,they tend to be,uh deeply personally vested in their own biases,and may not be able to look at the business as objectively rationally as you do.

　　但是你一定要有這樣的好奇心，當你決定投資一家公司的時候，你一定要成為這家公司的專才，要非常了解這家公司，要比世界上任何一個人都要了解這家公司，甚至比他們的高管更加了解，因為高管在日常管理工作中都會帶上自己的認知偏見，有的時候可能身在此山中沒有辦法跳出來看。所以你必須要成為對于這家公司真正的了解，把你自己全身心的投入其中，這樣你才能更加有信心的投資這家公司。

　　So that’s a really test,so you want to be a true specialist in the company you chose to really invest.But you want to be a generalist always of business in general.So that your core confidence,your circle of confidence constantly evolving and enlarging over time.

　　所以說，這真的很有挑戰(zhàn)，就你要投資的個體公司而言，你應該是一個專家，但是對于整體的商業(yè)你要有廣泛的認知，這樣你的認知能力圈和核心競爭力才可以不斷的拓展增強。

　　If I still really know what I knew when I started,when I first took your class,where would you first invest with,we will not really have anywhere near the results,and we both enjoyed，so luckily that,that we continue to expand,and we continue to learn.But on the other hand,it is a fascinating to see that how business evolved over the last few decades will continue to evolve in the next few decades and that really makes me feel that boy,I’m lucky to choose this field that I get paid to,really satisfy my curiosity and to learn from all these great people and great enterprises serving society,so I feel happy everyday doing what I do.

　　我在最開始學習和實踐投資的時候，其實沒有達到這樣的程度，但是幸運的是我們一直在路上，一直在持續(xù)學習。這樣的過程其實也是非常美好的，你可以親歷過去幾十年商業(yè)社會的發(fā)展，并且在未來繼續(xù)見證，這讓我非常慶幸于自己對于投資職業(yè)的選擇。這也是為什么我每天都很享受于工作的原因，我不僅獲得財務回報，還滿足了好奇心，還能跟各行各業(yè)的優(yōu)秀人才學習。

　　4、新的投資者應該接受什么樣的教育？

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　OK,so in terms of value investing education you actually played a big role in promoting and advocating value investing from the books to actually underwrote this class that we talked about where I went to Beijing University,and I think it still survives.What’s your vision for the kind of education that a new investor should embrace and where that education might be available?

　　接下來想問問你關于價值投資領域的教育。其實你也在積極的倡導和支持價值投資的理論傳播。包括你也一直在支持北京大學價值投資的課程。從你的角度看，對于新投資者來說，應該如何去學習和了解價值投資呢？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well,first of all,thank you,Bruce,for come to teach at the Beijing University value investing class that my colleague Jin Chang and I started 6 years ago,and now is 6 years and still running,and running very well.And you have played an important role to that.

　　首先，非常感謝您曾來北京大學教授價值投資的課程。這門課程是我和我的同事常勁六年前發(fā)起的。現在六年時間過去了，課程進行的很好。

　　I think our original inspiration for that class was really based on pretty much your class.And your class is pretty much inspired and the continuation of the Ben Graham& #39;s class,and Graham and Dodd,and which had among others,Warren Buffett as a student,and I& #39;m your student.There will be many more,much brighter investors coming after us,and that& #39;s a good thing.So we& #39;re trying to do our part,to really to pass on the philosophy,the thinking,and the practical parts of value investing,to the next generation,in a sense.

　　您對于這個課程的設立其實有著至關重要的作用，因為這個課程設計的最初啟發(fā)，就源于您在哥大的課程。您的課程是本杰明格雷厄姆教授經典課程的延續(xù)與傳承。格雷厄姆教授的眾多優(yōu)秀弟子中，有巴菲特這樣的著名學生；而我是您的學生。之后，會有更多更聰明的投資新星，將從我們這里繼續(xù)薪火相傳。這是一個好事情，所以我們盡自己的綿薄之力，把我們的想法、我們的認知以及我們在實踐當中所學到的經驗教授給新的投資者，教給下一代。我們希望盡自己的綿薄之力把我們的價值投資的理念、認知以及實踐當中所學到的經驗傳承給下一代。

　　So,in terms of a younger student,when you started today,so I think a few things will be important.When I talk to young students and people who started out,trying to get into the field,I say several things that is important.

　　而對于年輕剛剛起步的學生來講，應該考慮如下幾個重要的點。這也是我一直給想進入投資領域的年輕人和年輕學生說的。

　　You need to always adopt a owner& #39;s mentality.And so I like to really ask a young student or an analyst at our firm basically to imagine,all of a sudden that one of your unknown uncle died and handed over 100%ownership to the company to you,and that& #39;s the business you are going to study,so any company,think of the starting point that way.And once you really,kind of,think on your own 100%that way,your mentality is totally different.

　　首先，你需要有一種所有人意識。我會經常問年輕的學生或者我們公司新的分析師這個問題：假設你有個從未謀面的遠房叔叔突然去世了，他公司百分之百的的股權轉交到了你的手上。這就是你需要去研究的公司，任何公司我認為都是要從這個起點出發(fā)去了解研究的。一旦你認識到你對一個公司有著全部的股權，你的心態(tài)會完全不一樣。

　　So you never know that business existed,now you own 100%of it.You have no idea how to run it.You don’t know the people who will run it.What do you do?A lot of the things you know,you don& #39;t understand.You just know the facts,you don& #39;t understand it,but that& #39;s ok,you are gonna continue to learn,until you get 100%of it.

　　此前，你根本不知道這個公司的存在，但現在你卻100%擁有了全部股權——雖然你還不知道如何經營這個公司，對它的管理團隊也不了解。這種情況下，你會怎么做？你肯定是想方方面面的能了解多少就了解多少，有的時候你對拿到的信息不了解，沒關系，你可以進一步的研究，直到你了解熟悉掌握。

　　And even if then,because of the constant change,you& #39;re gonna to continue to evolve you knowledge of it.Now if you adopt that mentality,study any businesses,you will have really started the process of becoming a real value investor.So that& #39;s the first thing.

　　即便是這樣，因為事物都是在不斷地變化的，所以你也要持續(xù)的研究和學習?，F在，如果你能具備這樣的所有人意識，再來研究任何的公司，你就能在價值投資者的道路上走得更好。這是第一點。

　　The second thing is you really want to maintain intellectual honesty and that is very very very important.You have to be really honest of what you know,what you assume,what you pretend unsubconsciously,and what you don’t know,how do you really know that.

　　第二點，你需要保持對知識的誠實的態(tài)度。知之為知之，不知為不知，一定要誠實，這一點非常非常重要。你必須誠實地面對自己所知道的，所假設的，潛意識里假裝知道的，以及不知道的事物。你是怎么知道這些呢？

　　One of the things that Charlie have talked about that I think make the most sense is that I& #39;m never entitled to have a view,until I can find the smartest people on the planet who took the other side of that view and I can argue better that opposition than he does,and when I can do that,I would be entitled to have a view.Same thing applies to investing in a sense that,that intellectual honesty is a good life philosophy to begin with.It is critical,it is vital when it comes to investment.

　　查理·芒格曾經說過一個我認為很有道理的觀點，除非我找到地球上最聰明的同時與我持有不同觀點的人，并且能辯過他；否則我就無權發(fā)表觀點。當我能做到這一點，我才有權擁有一個觀點。理性誠實是很重要的人生哲理，在投資領域也是必不可少的。

　　Because as I said,the security market always exists to a point,to really to find your weaknesses,your dishonesty,your pretension,your bushy-mushy knowledges,and if you do not really possess that fundamental attitude of intellectual honesty,you& #39;ll be destroyed at some point during this,during your career by the financial market.It was always designed that way to catch you.

　　證券市場的存在幾乎就是為了找到人的弱點，人的不誠實，人的自命不凡以及急躁而又糊涂的觀點。如果不具備理性誠實的人生態(tài)度，那么你在職業(yè)生涯中的某個時候會被金融市場摧毀。金融市場幾乎就是為攻擊人性的弱點而設計的。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Can I,can I say something about that,because It was better designed that way.Every time you buy a security,thinking it& #39;s going to do well,somebody else is selling you that security thinking it& #39;s going to do bad,and vice versa.And one of you is always wrong.So you better be sure that you& #39;re the one that& #39;s on the right side of that transaction.

　　我能說兩句嗎？我覺得金融市場要好于你認為的設計路徑。每次你在投資的時候覺得這個股票絕對是好的才會買，但是賣方在賣出的時候肯定是覺得這個股票不行了才賣，反之亦然。所以其中一方肯定是想錯了。所以你必須要確保在交易的買賣雙方當中你是對的那一方。

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well,it is,there is some zero-sum aspect,but not always.

　　好吧，這里有一點零和博弈的味道，不過并不是每個交易都是這樣的。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Oh,no,it& #39;s a hundred percent zero-sum.The average return to all investors in any asset class and therefore in all all asset classes,is the average return to all those assets,it brings out...

　　不不不，我認為證券市場是百分之百的零和市場。任意資產類別中所有投資者的平均回報，也就是所有資產類別中所有投資者的平均回報，就是所有這些資產的平均回報。

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　I just take a slight different view,but I& #39;m never going to argue against my professors.

　　你的觀點和我的有些不一樣，但是我不會和您，我的教授爭辯的。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　I’m just gonna say…

　　我就是想說……

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Let’s just agree to disagree.That’s OK.It’s a fair point.It is a fair point.Another thing I would say is that you want to really devote as much time as possible to study the history of the businesses,and the history of the great businessmen in the past.The more you study more companies,the better you are when it comes to judgement on good opportunities and the judgment about fundamental characteristics of the company of interest.

　　在這個問題上，我們就保持各自不同的觀點，求同存異吧。您講的確實也很有道理。第三點就是要全身心的投入去研究這個公司的過往，包括成功的商人過去的一些歷史經歷。你研究學習的越多，你在決策的時候就判斷的更準，更容易抓住好的機會，而且更加能夠把握好你感興趣公司的基本面特征。

　　And so,I say all three things are important:

　　1.to start with the 100%owner mentality,

　　2.to continue to train yourself to have a high degree of intellectual honesty,

　　3.and lastly to be really a thorough student of the history of the businesses.

　　All three things are really going to be very helpful if you are beginning to get into the field of investment or you want to really improve your game.So that& #39;s my advice to the students.

　　這三點都非常重要：

　　首先，要鍛煉自己保持百分之百的所有人心態(tài)，

　　第二，一定要訓練自己保持百分百對知識誠實的態(tài)度，

　　第三，一定要保持不斷學習的心態(tài)，去徹底了解這個公司的過往和方方面面。

　　如果你剛剛進入到價值投資的領域，或者你純粹就是為了提升自己的投資水準學習，所有這些都能夠幫助到你。這就是我對年輕學生們的建議。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　That& #39;s good advice.I& #39;m not going to argue with that.

　　非常好的建議，我完全同意。

　　5、李錄如何回顧看待自己過往的人生決策？

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　When you look back over your own career,are there things that whether at Columbia Business School or in your career since then,you would have done differently that would have helped you get to where you are today sort of more quickly and more easily?

　　回望您個人的發(fā)展路程，包括在哥大學商學院以及后來的職業(yè)生涯，有沒有什么事情你今天會做法不同的？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Yeah well,when I look back,I feel extraordinarily lucky and I feel nothing but gratitude.I feel lucky to accidentally stepped into Buffett& #39;s lecture at your class basically,at the first time he came.I feel extraordinarily lucky that when I got into the business and that I stroke up a relationship with Mr.Charlie Munger.I feel extraordinarily fortunate to live in a period of time when both the United States and China are going through a fundamental economic growth and provide enormous amount of opportunity that I happen to really know both markets well.And so,I look back at my career,I feel nothing but gratitude.

　　回看過去，我覺得自己超級幸運，并充滿感恩：

　　我非常幸運地偶然在您的課上遇到了巴菲特先生，這還是他第一次來哥大演講。

　　我非常幸運地進入投資行業(yè)，并和能和查理·芒格先生建立緊密的關系。

　　更幸運的是，我所在的時代，中國和美國都在經歷著巨大的的經濟增長，這樣的發(fā)展也給我們帶來了非常多的機遇，而我剛好對兩邊的市場都比較了解。

　　因此，回望過去的職業(yè)路徑，我沒有什么后悔的，我都是充滿了感恩之心。

　　價值投資研究公司相關的方法

　　1、好公司的特點和估值方式

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Okay,so in this concentration,in sort of now investing in great businesses,can you please specific about what kind of business you look for?What are the characteristics of a great business in particular?What detailed characteristics you look for?And how you put a value on those businesses?

　　你認為什么樣的公司你認為是適合投資的好公司，他們有哪些具體的特性？其中，你重點會看的是什么？又會如何對這些公司估值呢？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Yeah,well,great business are the ones who really have above average returns on invested capital.But that kind of a business that is actually attract imitators Competitors.Everybody wants to have above average return on reinvested capital,and so truly good business is the one who can fend off competitors,who can really have enduring competitive advantage and cap that higher than average return on invested capital and hopefully also have a long run-rate of continuous growth.Those are the businesses we are looking for,and they could really come in all industries in all shapes and forms.but they& #39;re rare they& #39;re really,really rare.

　　好公司的資本回報率（ROIC）一定是高于平均水平的。但是這樣的業(yè)務，也會招來很多的競爭對手和模仿者，因為大家都想拿到超額的資本回報率。所以，真正的好公司其實是那些可以甩開競爭者，同時擁有可持續(xù)的競爭優(yōu)勢和較高資本回報率的公司，而且它還要能長期持續(xù)增長。這就是我們在找的好公司。他們會出現在所有的行業(yè)，有各樣的形式，但的確非常的稀有。

　　To have a business generate above average returns over a long time on a compound fashion.Again,it really against the natural order of things.It& #39;s really only has a small slice of all business has belonged to that category.So if you really lucky enough to really find one of those long-term compounders,all we have to do is really to own them and own them for the longest period of time.Now it helps when you really buy them at the time when we& #39;re happen to be treated you know as a discount for intrinsic value so that if you were wrong about them,you won& #39;t lose money.And if you& #39;re right,you will have more returns over time.

　　因為能長期地產生高于市場的資本回報率，本身就不是常態(tài)。只有非常少的公司能屬于此類。所以如果你能足夠幸運的找到一家這樣的公司，你需要做的就是長期持有它。

　　另外還有一點，如果你能在其價格低于其價值的時候買入，哪怕你對這個公司是不是好公司判斷錯了，你也不會虧錢。而一旦你的判斷是對的，你會在長時間內獲得更多的回報。

　　But over the longest period of time,if you do own them through the up and downs,your return roughly approximate basically the actual business return to the(actually)capital invested in the business itself over the long term.The two tend to really converge pretty closely.And so,understanding the study the nature of that business,the dynamic the competition is really the most important thing as the investor and as a student of the business.

　　當然在長期持有的時間周期內，你會經歷各種起伏波折，你的投資回報近似于實際的商業(yè)運營中的資本回報。因此去了解和學習在動態(tài)競爭格局中的公司本質，是對于學習價值投資的學生與投資者來說最重要的事情。

　　And as I said,there isn& #39;t really a set of things,have really made them that way.Every business really build their fortress slightly differently,and you just have to really actually will be honest with yourself and study from every possible angles And to really convince that the ashen are currently enjoying,enjoying truly are enduring and they truly have a long runway ahead of them.And they truly have a long long way ahead of them.And if they prove to be exactly as you predicted over the years,we really want to stay on them through the up and down,thick and thin,not to be really dissuaded easily.

　　但是沒有一個固定的模式讓這些公司成為好公司。每一個公司建立核心競爭優(yōu)勢的方式都會有些許的不同，你只需要誠實虛心的讓自己去學習每個可能性，去確定他們現在所獲得的優(yōu)勢能長期保持。如果數年后你的判斷被證明正確，你就能更堅定地在市場波動中持有這樣的公司，而不受到動搖。

　　2、好公司獲得持續(xù)競爭優(yōu)勢的因素有哪些？

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Okay,can I actually talk a little bit about those businesses?I mean,in limiting competition and I think Charlie Munger is the master at this,and they& #39;re really interested in moats.That is the barriers to entry into the business because it& #39;s keeping people out that& #39;s going to limit competition.

　　好的，我們繼續(xù)深入討論一下這個話題。查理·芒格先生是研究競爭優(yōu)勢護城河的大師。護城河其實是商業(yè)門檻，能讓很多人難以進市場從而限制市場競爭格局。

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Yeah.

　　是的。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　If you think about a moat,there are probably two elements about moats.So,think of it from a point of view of a company trying to get into the business.One is economies of scale.How big do you have to get,how big a market share do you have to capture in order to be viable as a competitor?So in automobile,that is the global automobile market,it& #39;s really large.And if you get 1 to 2%share,you& #39;re gonna be fine.In other markets like,for example,local distribution of carbonated soft drinks,you gotta get to 20 to 25%of the market to support the infrastructure that you need,and to compete.So,the first thing is the economies of scale.

　　談到護城河，從一家公司試圖進入這個行業(yè)的角度來考慮，可能有兩個因素需要考慮，第一個因素是規(guī)模效應。你的這個公司要有多大的市場份額，才能夠在市場中生存下去。

　　比如說像全球的汽車產業(yè)，如果一個公司能占有1%-2%的市場份額的話，它就可以活的不錯；但其他比如說軟飲的地方渠道商這樣的領域，你需要獲得20%-25%的市場份額才能在市場中生存下去。所以第一個競爭壁壘就是規(guī)模經濟。

　　The second thing I think and again,I’m sort of thinking about Charlie Munger here,is how hard is it to get that market share?Which is all about customer captivity in a contested environment where unique technology will help you with that,and so on.

　　第二個因素，在這里我又一次想到芒格的觀點，就是你獲得這樣市場份額的困難程度，這關系著競爭中，公司的客戶粘性有多大，是否有相應的技術手段幫助提升客戶粘性。

　　So,suppose you got to get to 25%share.We know for caffeinated soft drinks,that 0.2%share changes hands every year in a contested market.So,to get to 25%,you& #39;ve probably got a 125-year moat.Do you do a calculation like that for the companies you& #39;re looking at,you look at those two elements explicitly?

　　因此，假設你需要獲得25%的市場份額，而我們已知軟飲行業(yè)每年有0.2%的市場份額轉手率，因此要達到25%，你可能需要125年去建立護城河。對于你所尋找的公司，你看這兩個元素時，會做這樣的計算嗎？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　well,that and more.

　　我會考慮更多。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Okay,then what& #39;s the more?

　　更多什么呢？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　The scale is important in there.Actually,there is a scale economy in those businesses,not everything actually have a scale economy.And so,sometimes that the scale becomes a contract point,make it actually more difficult to really manage,but in a scale economy,that the scale it does really become a competitive advantage.And then,but the dynamic would have changed after a certain scale,information automobile,that& #39;interesting example,you know what happens at different phases of the industry.

　　規(guī)模效應當然很重要。事實上，很多行業(yè)都存在規(guī)模經濟效應，但也并不是每個行業(yè)都存在規(guī)模效應。有時候規(guī)模大了也有負面作用，讓公司難以管理。但是有規(guī)模效應時，這當然會成為競爭優(yōu)勢。但公司到達一定規(guī)模時，市場的格局和潛力也會發(fā)生變化。比如剛才你提到的汽車行業(yè)就是個有趣的例子，這個行業(yè)在不同階段的情況是不一樣的。

　　The consumer side is also important in a sense,that if you have quite a bit of consumer addiction products,brand loyalty,obviously that is important.And they& #39;re good for a long time until they& #39;re not good.Things to change,new product categories would have come along and run,get tired and old,not refreshed.Need for new generations really don& #39;t like to have the same taste as their parents and grandparents.

　　同時，消費者的因素也很重要。如果你有足夠有粘性的產品和品牌忠誠度，這就很有市場競爭力。這種優(yōu)勢可以持續(xù)很久，不過也可能在某天突然失效。對于新一代的消費者而言，他們的需求和父輩、祖輩很不一樣，這就需要有新的品類來替代那些乏味、過時或者讓人失去新鮮感的舊品類。

　　So,that& #39;s really the most interesting aspect of businesses,what is only constant,is the constant change.All great business changes over time.And I absolutely know business who can really remain that competitive edge forever,but some of the business really can keep it for very,very,very long time.

　　這就是商業(yè)最有趣的地方：唯一不變的就是變化本身。很少有公司能夠長期或者永遠的維持自己的競爭優(yōu)勢，但是有一些公司確實能做到。

　　And of course,when it changes,it is really upon the management team to be able to really reallocate capital towards those businesses.Actually now we enjoy a robust competitive advantage.Now take example with Berkshire,in a starting out as a lousy businesses,losing businesses,textile in New England,and Warren and Charlie& #39;s skills is that they took the last bit of the cash flow and skillfully invested in some other businesses,really on the right side of the trajectory.But over time,some of those businesses began to lose its competitive advantage,and then they took that capital and the allocate to the ones that.So,obviously management& #39;s capability of allocating capital also plays a very important role.

　　這需要管理層面臨變化的時候，有能力應對變化，重新進行資本分配，從而有相對穩(wěn)健的競爭優(yōu)勢。以伯克希爾哈撒韋公司舉例，它起步于新英格蘭一個虧損的紡織公司，巴菲特和芒格先生從那里起步，靈活的運用了最后一筆現金流，把它們重新分配和投入到正確的業(yè)務軌道上。隨著時間的推移，公司有一些業(yè)務喪失了競爭優(yōu)勢，但是他們正確運用了資本，放到沒有喪失優(yōu)勢的領域。所以，管理層運用分配資金的能力是非常重要的。

　　And of course that the culture of a company in the industry that& #39;s rapidly changing.So,then you& #39;re always a few step ahead of your competitors,which allows you to always observing on the edge that also becomes,enduring competitive advantage if that culture endures.

　　當然，公司有可持久的文化也很重要，這樣能讓你總能領先于競爭對手幾步，從而總能立于潮頭，成為有持久核心競爭力的公司。

　　So,in every specific businesses,what really make them successful are very,very different and they change over time,and so that is the most fascinating aspect,of the competitive dynamics and also the most fascinating aspect of being an investor.

　　總而言之，企業(yè)的成功各有不同，公司與競爭格局也總是在發(fā)生變化，而這也是讓我作為一個投資者最著迷的地方。

　　3、李錄在投資公司時考慮哪些因素？

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　As of today,how do you do this differently?Would you say from most other investments,are there things that you look at specifically?Are there ways that you approach companies?Now I& #39;ll tell you the thing that when I started investing with you and I& #39;m honored to say that I earned a lot of money doing it,that appealed to me was what you mentioned in your introduction,which is small,the small businesses are,or small markets are necessarily markets,that we have to get a big share,because one firm can dominate and that& #39;s not something that most investors look at.So,in what other ways do you do things differently from most other value investors and investors?

　　你是怎樣創(chuàng)造出今天這不凡成就的呢？挑選投資標的時，你會特別注意哪些方面呢？你是怎樣研究解讀公司的呢？其實我最早投資你的時候，最吸引我的地方就是在于你提到的小而美的公司或市場，在這些標的里我們必須要獲得足夠多股份，而這點不是大多數投資者所看重的。

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Yeah.Well,you& #39;re right.Well,you invested with me or you began to invest with me.Thank God.You& #39;re still with me.So,thank you for your continued to trust and confidence.No back then we were looking for a smaller business because of those the business,I feel I can understand them.And as we evolve,we began to look for bigger businesses.We can also understand that bigger business does come with a whole set of advantages that if they are right in a sense,and they also come in with a whole bunch of problems.

　　是的，首先很感謝教授您從最初到現在，都一如既往的支持與信任我。在當時，我們的確是專注于較小規(guī)模的公司，因為我更容易了解他們的商業(yè)模式。但隨著我們的發(fā)展，我們也開始看一些我們能懂的更大型的公司。這些大公司如果路徑正確，他們能有全盤的一攬子競爭優(yōu)勢，但同時也可能有著一系列問題。

　　And so,we& #39;re not really oaky,just big or medium or small size is one consideration,but it& #39;s not in the most important,certainly not a determining factor is when we& #39;re looking for businesses.

　　因此我們其實并不是用規(guī)模來定義我們所尋找的公司，它是一個判斷因素，但不是最重要的。

　　They are big businesses because of a certain dynamics are still growing at a real bust to pace that it becoming even more entrenched as they become bigger and still have long runs with growth.So,that just exists.You know,the most recent phenomenal of the technology platform,because of the network and network effect,some of the business have fit in that characteristics.Now they don& #39;t necessarily always grow forever,but they have been growing for a long,long time and likely to continue for some time.And so,just the size itself,in certainly not the most determining factor by,yeah.

　　比如一些大公司，它們仍然能在較長時間保持著穩(wěn)定增長，它們的護城河也在持續(xù)加固中。您知道的，現在的科技平臺企業(yè)中，很多公司都符合上述特性。它們的確不可能永遠增長，但是他們還能持續(xù)增長很長時間。而這就是為什么規(guī)模本身并不能成為最主要的決定因素。

　　4、投資中，如何看待公司管理層?

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　And how much is management the part of that?And how do you look for management to have that capability？

　　在選擇公司的過程中，管理團隊的分量是什么樣的？你們如何找到符合預期的管理層呢？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well in a lot of the companies,the management will make big differences.The culture of those management will produce will make a big difference.

　　對大多數公司來說，管理層都會有巨大影響。不同的風格與文化，在同一公司會產出完全不同的結果。

　　But in a small set of experiences,management really matters almost nothing.Best the strengths of business itself,really has a dynamic of its own that really almost anybody can run it and run it well,relatively.Now those businesses are really rare,not that many.Can probably put them in one hand or two hands.

　　但我也遇到極少數例子，管理層對業(yè)務的影響可以忽略。這樣的公司的長項就是他們有一套自己的運營體系、極具生命力，幾乎任何人都能管理和經營，并且做得相對不錯。不過這樣的公司鳳毛麟角，一兩只手就能數得過來。

　　And so each again I come back to the situation.Each time is different.You have to really look for each specific company.That company in specific ways and ask all kinds of appropriate questions and study them over long period time in order to really honestly say that you actually understand them,understand them enough(that)you can predict the outcome in 10 years even given all the up and downs in the macro environment.

　　再回到如何做投資決策這個話題。每一次決策都有獨特性。你必須具體公司具體分析，花足夠長的時間仔細研究所有相關問題，直到真的弄懂它們。這樣就算未來環(huán)境跌宕起伏，你也能夠預測出這個公司未來10年的前景如何。

　　對宏觀市場環(huán)境的分析與評論

　　1、市場今天的情況像過往當中的哪一個階段呢？

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Okay.So,what about the market today?I mean it seems highly valued.I mean if you look at fixed income,it seems unprecedented.That said does the market today remind you of any historical periods you& #39;ve lived through in good ways or bad,and you have advice for anybody on how to navigate?

　　你怎么看待現在的市場情況？這看上去是一個估值過高的市場。比如固定收益目前是史無前例的高?；仡櫮阃顿Y道路上所經歷的歷史周期，現在的市場情況是否讓你想到過去某一個好的或者壞的時期呢？如何在這樣的市場中正確決策，你有什么心得與方法？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well,we,we usually don& #39;t study too much about the market except when they& #39;re really treat.And this is a happens to be one of them is more extreme period of time.It is truly,in many ways that we& #39;re in unchartered territories,the monument quiddity of this being printed,the level of interest rate,and also the slow pace of the growth.All of those are quite really remarkable in this period of time.So,how do you really deal with them?

　　其實我們并不會過度研究宏觀市場，除非整個市場真的變得非常極端。而現在，我們的確處在一個面臨各種未知的極端時期。市場的流動性、利率水平、以及經濟的增速放緩都使得現在市場變得極端。我們如何應對呢？

　　We don& #39;t necessarily think that history will repeat.And so,every time it& #39;s slightly different instead of guessing the patterns of history and whether they repeat,we focused on selecting companies that can really lift through the thick and thin.Whatever the environment,business will continue,somebody will do well.We just won& #39;t really have in those companies,because they& #39;re capable of dealing with those extraordinary set of uncertainties,and they& #39;ll be doing fine.

　　我們其實不認為歷史會重演。每一個時期都有各自的不同。與其猜測歷史規(guī)律的重復性，我們更愿意專注于挖掘和選擇能跨越周期的公司。不管是什么樣的環(huán)境，總有公司會活下去，總有人能活的很好。我們只需要去投資這些有能力應對極端不確定性的公司就好。

　　2、如何應對環(huán)境的危機?

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　So,you& #39;ve lived through in your 23 years running MLA of a number of major financial crisis,the Asia crisis in& #39;97,the tech bust in 2000,the financial crisis in 2008.And actually last year the COVID-19 situation.Are there specific things you learn about managements or companies that you look for in those crises?

　　你掌舵喜馬拉雅資本已經23年，也引領它安然度過了1997年的亞洲金融風暴、2000年的互聯網泡沫、2008年的金融危機以及2020年的新冠疫情。在這樣危機下，對于標的公司或者管理團隊，哪些事情是你關注和尋找的？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well,so as you said,in my 24 years of managing Himalaya Capital,we have gone through several of those big crisis.Each time when that happens,it was as built as once in the century crisis.

　　正如你所言，喜馬拉雅的24年中，我們經歷了幾輪大的經濟危機。

　　It probably was,except it happens on the timeframe about every 5 to 10 years.So,the financial market boom and bust has been a constant phenomenon since the beginning of the financial market several hundred years ago.And also driven by human nature.As long as human nature remains that way it will never change.It will always be with us.Now as a product of evolution,we human are basically run not necessarily in a very rational way.Now we& #39;re very good at rationalization,but we& #39;re not very good at being rational.

　　幾乎每5-10年，就會發(fā)生一次這種世紀大危機。因此，從百年前金融市場起步階段開始，泡沫的誕生、增長與破滅其實一直在這個市場持續(xù)發(fā)生。而這是由人性導致的，人性是永遠不會改變的。作為進化的產物，人性不是理性構建的。我們可能擅長對事物進行合理化分析，但是并不擅長于保持理性。

　　So,we always are looking for it.In a sense we& #39;re governed by some set of hard wired,hard coded instincts.And looking for a zero sum and we& #39;re looking for fast money and they& #39;re really totally scared when things goes against you.So,that& #39;s basic sense of greed and fear.We will always enjoy a drive,a financial market up and down.Particularly when it comes to money,humans are very funny.It tends to evoke a primal part of human nature.

　　因此我們常常追求理性。在某種意義上，我們是受一系列隱秘的有關聯性的本能所支配的。因為貪婪與恐懼，我們會追求零和博弈與快錢，而當進展不利時我們也會害怕。正是我們驅使了金融市場的起伏，面對金錢時，人類是可笑的，因為金錢總能激發(fā)人性最原始的一面。

　　And so,particularly relates to financial market and security market money that that human tendency of the extreme instincts become more amplified and more extreme.And that& #39;s why the financial market from the very beginning has always been characterized by boom and bust.And will remain so.

　　因此，具體到金融證券市場，人性的極端性會被放大到更加極致的狀態(tài)。這就是為何金融市場的起伏周期從初始就長期存在，且永恒持續(xù)。

　　And how do you to deal with such an environment that will be constant?One way to deal with that is to anticipate that always on the corner,at all times.And that& #39;s basically our attitude,that financial crisis will happen all the time.People will always be driven by fear,by euphoria,by this extreme kind of ups and downs.And so,we& #39;re looking for businesses that are capable of living through that.And even businesses that could really thrive in that environment.In a sense have a certain characteristic of anti-fragile.

　　我們該如何應對市場的起落呢？一個辦法是意識到市場波動隨時都有可能發(fā)生。這也是我們所抱持的基本態(tài)度。首先，我們要認識到，金融危機隨時都可能爆發(fā)，因此我們需要尋找的就是那些有韌性，能應對市場周期，甚至在危機中還能茁壯發(fā)展的標的公司。某種意義上，這些公司擁有反脆弱的特質。

　　And so,that up and down becomes somewhat friendly for us in the sense,that when our favorite company is on sale in a discount it by 50,60,70%,if we have money,we& #39;ll buy more of it.If we don& #39;t have money,it is a hallmark of being a good investor.You can sit through and watch your portfolio down by 50%and not be effected at all.

　　如此一來，市場起伏反而對我們比較友善。因為當你青睞的公司，受市場環(huán)境影響，價格下跌50%，60%，70%時，如果我們有錢，我們將可以增持更多；而如果我們沒有更多的錢，這個市場環(huán)境就是優(yōu)秀投資人的試金石——你是否可以遠觀你所投的公司股價跌掉50%而巍然不動并挺到最后。

　　On the other hand,the other side of the coin is that you& #39;re equally unaffected when everybody around you are making fast money,fast and furious,a lot of them.And you& #39;re really seemingly totally left behind.And so that& #39;s really part of the temperament that most people don& #39;t have.And that& #39;s why not everybody can succeed in this game of investment.

　　另一方面，當周圍所有人都在賺快錢的時候，你貌似會被他們遠遠的拋在身后，如何仍能不被影響是大多數人不具備的性情。然而，這樣的性情以及對人性的認知是做好投資所需要的。這也是為何不是每一個人在投資博弈中都能成功的原因。

　　And so,to succeed in this game requires a certain temperament.And a certain understanding of human nature.Also,a certain common sensible approach.And knowing that your investment return eventually will mirror the actual business return by actual businesses.And you know in real life,real businesses don& #39;t really change by day,by hour,by week,by months.It took years for them to really either go up or down.And so,you should expect your investment result to come in over slowly gradually over a long period of time.So,the short-term phenomena should not really impact you as much,either on the up or on down.

　　想在投資場取得成功，得具備一定的品性、了解人性、具備常識的判斷能力。我們知道投資回報最終是由公司的實際業(yè)務回報所決定的。我們也知道，公司業(yè)務其實不會在短時間內有大的變化，它需要數年時間去獲得增長或逐步衰退。因此，投資人對投資回報的周期預判其實應該是緩慢、長期且循序漸進的。短期的一些起伏其實并不會影響我們的投資。

　　And so,if you have that basic temperament and basic approaches,what you& #39;re going to find is that both the euphoria,as well as the crash,actually can serve you well.And this is really going back to Ben Graham& #39;s basic concept of Mr.Market that it is there to serve you,not to instruct you.Except in real game of the investment,those phenomenon,those on the up and down,tend to be quite extreme and testing.

　　如果你有這樣的抗干擾個性與基本方法論，其實你會發(fā)現市場的瘋狂和暴跌仍可以把你服務的很好。這其實就回到了格雷厄姆先生關于市場的基本理論-市場是來服務你，而不是來指導你的。這些市場亂象與起伏，的確會讓投資變得非常的極端與困難。

　　And so,the other thing that will be very testing is that we really do need to understand the business itself.

　　而另一個困難的事情是，我們需要能真正地理解公司。

　　And if you really try to pretend you understand,and you& #39;re really driven by something else other than deep understanding,you will be tested.And so,that& #39;s the salient nature of the financial market.I sometimes almost feel that they exist to really to catch human weaknesses.That if you really don& #39;t understand something that you& #39;ll pretend to,you will be busted at some point.But if you truly understand,you will be able to add when the security really down 50,60,70%…

　　如果你假裝了解一個公司，那你投資的依據就不來自于對公司的深度了解，而這么做，遲早會讓你陷入困境。市場會考驗人性的弱點，如果你不懂裝懂，投資的泡沫總會在某天破裂。反之，如果你真的懂，你就有能力在價格低點不斷地加倉，從而獲得超額收益。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Yeah.Can I actually talk a little bit about a specific example there and maybe get you to talk about an example?Because one of the things that you talked about was the stability of these companies and their managements in the face of a crisis.

　　我先拋磚引玉，然后你來舉出一個具體案例好嗎？因為剛剛你也講到了公司經營的穩(wěn)定以及管理層應對危機的能力等。

　　So,a crisis tells you a lot.And the one company that obviously recently has done extremely well,and you could see it,is John Deere.So,if you looked at John Deere in 2000,demand fell by 5%and their profit margins fell to zero.If you look at what happens to them in& #39;13,& #39;14,demand falls 35%,and their profit margin stays at roughly half of what it was before,which is higher than it had been historically.So,clearly that& #39;s a company that& #39;s changed.And in the face of sort of catastrophic,external conditions,has gone from doing quite badly to doing much better.Do you have examples of that from the companies you& #39;ve invested in,where you& #39;ve seen them perform through a crisis?

　　其實危機可以給我們很多啟示。近年來有一個公司在危機中做的很好，你可能也有看到，是John Deere。如果你在2000年看這家公司，他們的收入跌了5%，同時利潤幾乎跌到零點。而13和14年，他們收入更是跌了35%，但是利潤率卻高于任何歷史時期。因此很明顯，這個公司做出了一些改變。在面臨極端危機時，人們也能讓自己越做越好。你是否可以分享你投資過的公司案例，它們是如何自如地應對危機的？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　I do.My 27,28 years of investment,that& #39;s the kind of things you would collect,but normally we don& #39;t talk about specific companies.

　　確實，在我做投資的27、28年里，碰到過不少公司應對危機的經歷，但通常我們不會討論具體公司。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　But could you share maybe a historical experience of that so that the students in the audience might have a sense of what to look for in looking for this stability?

　　那能不能跟我們分享一下相應的經驗，關于如何尋找有穩(wěn)定性的公司。好讓商學院的學生們能更具體地理解你所說的這種穩(wěn)定性。

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well,Bruce,we tried this multiple times in your class.I’m not going to change.

　　哈哈，布魯斯，我們曾經在你的課堂上進行過多次這樣的拉鋸，我不會談具體案例的。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　I know.This is very familiar to me.

　　確實，這種對話我再熟悉不過了。

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　And there is a simple logic reason why we don& #39;t do that.Once you achieve a certain notoriety in a certain field that people tend to really copy that.And that& #39;s not the behavior we want to encourage.Instead giving people fish,it& #39;s much better to really teach people how to fish.

　　為什么我們不具體分享案例，這背后其實有一個非常簡單的邏輯。一旦你在某一領域有所建樹和名氣，人們就會竟相模仿，但我們并不鼓勵這樣。所謂授之以魚，不如授之以漁。

　　3、如看待亞洲尤其是中國市場？

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Well,Okay.So let& #39;s talk about the evolution of markets and in particular at a 2010 panel at Columbia Business School,you mentioned that Asia& #39;s role in the global financial system was becoming increasingly important.Looking back,how has Asia& #39;s role evolved in the last 10 years?And what about China& #39;s role going forward in both the world& #39;s business economy and in the financial?

　　好的，我們再來講一下市場的變化。我記得2010年你在哥大商學院的一次分享上提到，亞洲對于全球金融體系會變得越來越重要，那么現在回頭看，你認為過去十年亞洲市場是如何成長的；向后展望，未來的十年，中國市場在全球經濟，特別是全球金融市場的重要性會有什么樣的變化？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　The world is turned out exactly as we predicted,Asia,indeed become a lot more important,particularly China in it becomes even more important.As I look at in the next few decades,I would say that the Chinese market and Asia in general will become even more important.The set of dynamics that are already set in place will continue to play off in a robust way.So,the Chinese security market in general and Asia economy that will become increasingly a very,very important,evermore important component of the global market.

　　正如我們預測的，亞洲市場的確越來越重要，特別是中國。展望未來，整個亞洲市場，特別是中國市場，會持續(xù)變成全球金融體系中越來越重要的一部分。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Well,alright.So let me give you some data that I don& #39;t think this five-year appreciate it.I mean,the Chinese numbers are obviously very difficult to interpret,at least the official numbers.And whenever you see that from a company,the data you really want to look at is the date where there& #39;s a reliable counter.And the trade data is where there& #39;s a reliable counterparty because every Chinese export has to be an import from another country.And every Chinese import has to be an export from another country.

　　好，那我來給你一組數據，這5年的情況跟你的預測向左。我的意思是，撇開中國（官方）數據的不可考證，進出口貿易的數據就無法造假，因為中國的出口額一定是另一個國家的進口額，反之亦然——就如同你觀察一個公司的數據時，也會希望得到的是一個經過嚴格審計的結果。

　　Over the last 8 to 10 years,China trade has grown by only about 2.5%a year.That& #39;s less than 1%faster than U.S.trade.What does that say about Chinese growth?I mean,that& #39;s clearly much slower than the trade growth prior,say to 2010,2011.And it& #39;s fluctuated obviously.But if anything,it& #39;s slowing down.What does that say about China& #39;s future?

　　好的。我這里有一些關于中國市場的數據。在過去的8-10年，中國的貿易每年僅有2.5%的增長，這個比美國的貿易增長速度僅僅快不到1%，如何解讀這個增長速度？我想說的是，這個增速對比2010年和2011年的時候要低很多的，而且很波動起伏，并且整體增速放緩，這對中國未來的經濟發(fā)展意味著什么？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well,it tells you that the characteristic of the Chinese economy has changed fundamentally.You know,up until 10 years ago,what really propels the Chinese growth is,has been,was international trade to a certain extent.And I would say back in 2010,the net trade,meaning the export/import netted out was roughly about 9%of GDP.And so,China& #39;s economy was heavily dependent on the global market.

　　我覺得這意味著中國經濟發(fā)生了根本性的改變。十年以前，中國的經濟增長的驅動力主要是國際貿易。2010年左右的時候，進出口貿易額占到中國GDP的9%，因此當時的中國經濟十分依賴于國際市場。一度中國成為全世界最大的貿易國，每年都有著兩位數的增長速率，遠遠高于世界其他經濟體的的增長速度。

　　Now what happened is that,and they were growing at really double-digit growth.At the time of when the rest of the global economy was growing at much,much less a fraction of that.And so,at a certain point,once you become the largest trading nation,you can& #39;t really had the rest of the world wouldn& #39;t be able to keep up.

　　接下來發(fā)生的，中國經濟以真正兩位數的速度在增長。而同期世界的其他經濟體則增速緩慢。因此，某種意義上講，一旦你成了最大的貿易國，就不能再要求世界其他地區(qū)和你腳步一樣。

　　And the other thing that is happening is after the citizens become middle classes,their demand changes from basically just work,saving,into really work and saving and consume.And it just also human nature.So,roughly around 10 years ago,as you point out,the Chinese economy has slowly evolved into more of a consumer-driven economy.

　　另一方面，另外，中國的發(fā)展讓很多人成為了中產階級，因此他們的需求也發(fā)生了變化，他們生活中的重點從工作和存錢，轉變?yōu)榱斯ぷ?，存錢，還有消費，這就是人性的體現。生活好了以后，消費需求會隨著生活條件變好逐漸提升。因此，正如你所指出的，過去十年中，中國的經濟從貿易導向慢慢變成了消費拉動的市場。

　　To the point that interestingly,last year was a watershed year in a sense that the retail sales,the total volume of retail sales for the first time overtaken United States.China was the largest retail market in the whole world at a 6 trillion US dollars.The U.S.is roughly 5.5 trillion now.Granted that was a special year in the sense that a global pandemic ahead other countries harder than China,that& #39;s also said that China has done a better job in managing the pandemic.

　　有趣的是，去年是一個分水嶺。中國的商品零售總額首次超過了美國，以6萬億美元的消費額躍居世界第一消費市場。同期，美國大概是5.5萬億美元。當然，去年是個特殊時期，疫情對其他國家的影響比中國大，這也說明中國在疫情控制方面做得更好。

　　But basically the trend is there.China is emerging to become the most dynamic,fastest growing consumer market in the whole world.And that is likely to continue for many,many more decades to come.So,that really make China even more attractive to the global economy in terms of people who want to sell it back to the consumers for the middle class in China.And the characteristic of the economy would change and would also really provides unique and interesting opportunities for global investors.

　　但基本的趨勢已經非常明顯了。中國市場正快速成長為全球最具活力、增長最快的消費市場。這個趨勢在未來幾十年仍將持續(xù)，因此中國的市場和中產階級消費群體對全球來說是非常有吸引力的，而這也將改變中國經濟的性質，為全球投資者提供了重要且獨特的機會。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Let me just talk a little bit about that.I mean,the thing about retail sales is that it& #39;s selling goods.The thing about the developed economies is that they& #39;re overwhelmingly service economies,they& #39;re not goods economies.And on that dimension,it doesn& #39;t look like China& #39;s doing particularly well.And as I say,the export data,you could understand that that would slow down.But the fact that the import data has slowed down just as much or more tells you something about the nature of domestic growth in China.What about the challenges in the service sector in China?

　　我也想在這點說兩句。比如說零售，零售無非就是賣東西。而發(fā)達國家都是服務型的經濟為主體，而非商品型經濟為主體。從這點看，所以中國在服務型經濟上做的并不好。而從數據上看，雖然你能解釋中國的出口為何放緩，但進口的數據其實也放緩了許多，這是否也反映了中國的國內增長狀況，在服務領域，中國面臨的挑戰(zhàn)如何？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well,you& #39;re certainly right that at the current stage,the service sector has yet to become as powerful and dominant as mostly matured,developed economies in the West.And that& #39;s really a biased view set of opportunities for the decades ahead of them.And that& #39;s,by the way,not that much different than all the other developed economy.At a comparable station,the development of state at the$10,000,$11,000 capital GDP,which is where China is today.

　　你對中國經濟當前階段的判斷確實是對的?，F在中國的服務產業(yè)尚未同西方發(fā)達國家一樣形成經濟主導，而這其中也蘊藏著未來幾十年的一系列機會。順便說一下，在這一點上看，中國和其他所有的發(fā)達國家的路徑是相似的。中國正處在當年美國人均GDP 10,000-11,000美元的發(fā)展階段。

　　But even look at the underlying dynamics of various different businesses,different performance,both consumptions,retailers and the service are basically the ones that are growing the fastest.And overall,trade internationally is still growing at a robust rate,but not nearly as much as the domestic side of the economy.And so,that& #39;s why that their share of the GDP has gradually began to shrink.So,domestic consumption becomes a far more important,both goods and the services as you point out.So,that just tells you that a different stage of the economy where it is today.

　　但是即便是不同商業(yè)的潛在動力，消費、零售和服務都是增長最快的?？傮w來看，中國的國際貿易仍然在穩(wěn)健發(fā)展，但是沒有國內經濟增長率高。因此，這就是為什么進出口貿易在中國的GDP比重逐漸收縮，而消費和服務成為更加重要的部分，這是中國現在的獨特發(fā)展階段所導致的。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　So where do you see the unique challenges and opportunities instead of finding value investment opportunities in China?

　　那么，你覺得在中國做價值投資的獨特機遇和挑戰(zhàn)都是什么？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well,China remains,I think,one of the best market,if you were a value investor,in many sense.In a sense the market is still somewhat underdeveloped.The market today is not as representative as the real economy the way,for example,United States looks.And so there& #39;s a lot of under development in that regard.And the trading and the investors are still not as mature.And there is still a mentality of a faster trading high turnovers,which actually render some of the companies,again,going through a faster pace of this boom and burst.

　　如果你是一個價值投資者，中國仍然是全球最好的市場之一。盡管它仍然是一個發(fā)展中的市場，不能代表實體經濟?，F在還不是特別的成熟。今天這個市場的路徑其實跟美國是不太一樣的，市場的交易和投資者其實都仍然不夠成熟，很多人的心態(tài)還是在于高頻交易和高周轉率，這使得其中的一些公司會以更高的速度經歷泡沫的誕生與破滅。而同時，這也給真正成熟有耐心，真正懂得市場的投資者很多機會。

　　Again,that usually provides opportunities for those mature patient investors who truly know what they& #39;re doing.And also,as you said,in the service sector of the economy,when it comes to financial services,is still yet to be developed.And China was really right at this stage in the financial services industry actually,is about to take off in a big way for many reasons.And it just so happens,also the Chinese government is quite keen in making macroeconomic policies quite conducive for the development of the financial service industry.And they began to open up to the global firms as well,in a way they& #39;ve never done that before.So all those confluence of factors really make the market that much more attractive today than it was before.

　　服務領域中，金融服務在這個階段就有著很大的發(fā)展空間。這其中有很多的驅動力。中國政府一直很敏銳的制定一系列利好的經濟政策來促進金融服務市場的發(fā)展。中國金融市場現在也前所未有地開始對海外機構更加開放，這些因素都讓這個市場比以往更具吸引力。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Yeah.Can I say something about that?Financial services is probably the fifth and sixth largest service sector.The biggest is housing by far.The second biggest is medical care.The third biggest is education.And the fourth and fifth biggest are like wholesale and retail distribution and personal services and then financial services,although in the U.S.It& #39;s a little higher than that.What about those sectors in China?

　　是的。我可以繼續(xù)聊聊這個問題嗎？在我看來，金融服務可能是全球第五或第六大服務產業(yè)，最大的仍是住房，第二大是醫(yī)療，第三大是教育，第四和第五應該是批發(fā)零售和個人服務，之后就是金融服務，不過在美國它的排名可能會更靠前。這些領域在中國的機會如何呢？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　That sector is also growing.

　　這些行業(yè)也在增長。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Right.Do you see oppotunities in...

　　那你看到哪些機會了嗎？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Absolutely we do.We see opportunity basically.Virtually every industry are going through a robust growing stage,some more than the others.And even if the industry,they& #39;re not growing as fast,you can still find interesting companies,values,and I don& #39;t have to.You are the Google for this field.So,different people tend to focus to different aspect of the industries and different aspects of the growth profile.Some looking value and high growth companies,some looking values at moderate growth companies.Some look value in places that doesn& #39;t grow at all.In fact,they probably declining and therefore they find even bigger markets.

　　當然有很大的機會。本質上，每一個產業(yè)都在經歷穩(wěn)健增長，有些可能增長的更快。即便一個行業(yè)增長的沒有那么快，但是其中也有一些有趣的公司和價值，這里我就不詳述了，您是專家。所以，不同的投資者，都有著不同的市場關注角度，對公司成長階段的偏好也不同，有一些更關注高成長性的公司，有些是看一些比較緩和增長的公司，有一些甚至傾向于沒有在增長甚至在萎縮的公司，這樣他們能獲得更好的議價空間。

　　So,if you are a true,good investor in that sense,you can find value everywhere.But you will probably more capable of finding values in dynamically growing economies,such as China.They& #39;re still growing at multiple times of the mature economy in the West.And there& #39;s still enormous market inefficiency in this security market.So that combination of those two really make it enticing.On top of that one,whole series of government report,I mean good government reform,will make those inefficiencies gradually be more efficient.And so that transition offers even more interesting opportunities.So this is a good time for global investors,and certainly for U.S.investors as well.

　　所以，如果你是一個好的投資人，你可以在任何地方找到價值，特別是在中國這樣的充滿活力且快速增長的經濟體中。中國的證券市場仍然有著大量的低效率的市場空間，這讓投資中國市場更加讓人激動。除此之外，還有大量的政府改革措施會讓這些低效空間逐漸變得高效，這將帶來更多的市場機會。因此對全球，特別是美國的投資者來說，這是一個很好的時機去投資中國。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Okay.In those terms that as Chinese financial markets are developing,do you have certain reforms or other things you& #39;d be interested in seeing implemented?You sort of have a top development that you& #39;d like to see happen in the China financial markets or even in the China economy?

　　好的。中國的金融市場確實是在不斷發(fā)展。針對中國金融市場或者整體經濟的改革措施和市場的變化中，哪些是你期望出臺執(zhí)行的或者想看到的？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well,in a sense,it was already happening.This is what I mean that the Chinese government regulator has been very keen to develop the security market.For years and years the Chinese security market is not very representative of the Chinese economy,partially because it really,well,the IPO rules are based on what they call approval model.You have to go through lenses of approval layers of approval process in order to be listed.And so the ones who are listed are the ones who may be approved by government for whatever reason,sometimes often not really market driven.

　　我覺得很多都已經在發(fā)生了。中國的政府和監(jiān)管機構是很樂于發(fā)展證券市場的。在過去很長時間，中國的證券市場其實并沒有能夠很好的代表中國的經濟，主要的原因是IPO的上市規(guī)則是審批制的——你需要一層一層的通過監(jiān)管機構的審批然后才能上市。那些成功過會上市的公司由政府全權審核，有時候不完全是市場驅動型的公司。

　　Compared with other markets,such as the United States,that it is based on registration-based.So as a market-driven,as a result of the financial market,a security market,here are quite representative of the true economy.As the Chinese economy moving from an export import driven economy into more of consumer demand economy,entrepreneurial companies with the market driven dynamics are increasingly playing a larger role.

　　對比其他的市場，比如美國市場的注冊制，更多是市場驅動。因此作為金融市場的核心，美國的證券市場是足以代表美國經濟的。隨著中國經濟從進出口貿易驅動，轉變?yōu)橄M驅動，市場驅動為核心的民營企業(yè)逐漸發(fā)揮著越來越大的作用。

　　And therefore,this financial market have to reflect the changing dynamics and the Chinese government is determined to reform its IPO process from one of approval process model into one that is much like United States of registration-based model.And so we are probably still early in that process.But as that process began to play out,we& #39;ll see the finacial market become more reflective of the real economy.

　　因此，金融市場需要反映這樣的市場變化，也因此中國政府非常有決心調整IPO的上市規(guī)則，從以前審批制，轉變?yōu)楦衩绹灾艻PO的程序。現在還是屬于比較早的一個階段，隨著規(guī)則調整的深入，我們將可以看到這個市場更好的反應真實的經濟情況。

　　And the other big changes that is happening is that most of the financing are done through the banking sectors up to the point,80 plus percent.And over time,in the financing is best to really do through what they call direct financing,mostly through market driven dynamics of fixed income,equities,etc.We see the overall financing model,the Chinese economy from one that is more indirect into more direct,and so this is the reason for opening up this financial service industry,both for domestic players and global players.As we& #39;re seeing that dynamic plays out over the next decade or so,there will be a lot more opportunities.And the financial market will become more mature and there will be more institutional players coming into it.The financial market size will become much,much bigger than what it is today.Those are really all bode well for investors who truly understand what they& #39;re doing basically in China.

　　另外一個正在發(fā)生的改變是在融資領域，目前很多的融資行為都是通過銀行業(yè)操作的，可能要達到80%左右，但是隨著時間的推移，直接融資越來越多，這是主要由市場驅動的融資渠道，涵蓋固定收入投資，證券投資等多種形式。我們會看到總體中國的金融模式慢慢從間接越來越多的轉到直接融資模式，而這也是呼應中國的金融服務業(yè)對中外機構的進一步開放，同時對于未來幾十年來說，中國市場的逐漸成熟和發(fā)展，都意味著更多的市場機會。中國金融市場的機構投資者將會越來越多，市場將越來越大，對于那些真正了解中國市場的投資者是極為利好的。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Now,let me ask another question in that connection.I mean,the thing about a service economy is that services are overwhelmingly locally produced and consumed.There are very few global universities,for example,there are very few global high schools,very few global hospitals.That means that typically if you look at developed economies like the United States with big service sectors,the firms which tend to be local,the service firms that tend to be local,tend to be locally financed.So I assume you know that local banks in the United States are much more profitable than the big global banks.Do you see a comparable trend developing in China that you can take advantage of?

　　讓我再問一個與此相關的問題。我的意思是，服務業(yè)有一個特點就是絕大多數都是本土生產提供的。比如，跨國的大學、高中或者醫(yī)院是很少的。比如說美國的主要服務業(yè)領域，那些公司都是趨于本土化的，包括資金也都本土化。我估計你是知道的，美國的本地運營的銀行比大的國際銀行的利潤率要高很多，你在中國市場，是否看到了這樣類似的趨勢以及其中蘊含的機會呢？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Some yes and some no.I wouldn& #39;t say that the local banks in the US is...

　　某些方面，可以這么說，但也不能這么定義。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　No,I& #39;m just thinking in terms of local experts within China and local service businesses,that would include of course,local banks.

　　我的意思是針對那些中國本土的服務領域的公司，當然包括銀行。

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Yeah,well,they tend to really know the local area.But the Chinese regulation banking is slightly different.So there are only roughly about 15 banks that really have the mandate of being able to take deposit on a national basis.And all the other,rest of the financial institutions are able to really take deposits in a very,very small,well-defined local region,whether a town,or villages,cities,etc.It is a heavily,heavily regulated businesses,and so that really gives them almost an oligopoly type of a status in term of taking deposit,which is very important,of course,in terms of the source of capital.So that dynamic is a slightly different than the United States,for example.

　　但是中國的銀行監(jiān)管是有些許不太一樣的。中國的銀行體系是一個高度監(jiān)管的市場，可能只有大概15個左右的銀行有全國范圍吸收儲蓄的資質，而市場的一些其他金融機構都只能在非常小的地區(qū)，非常明確的領域內吸收儲蓄。因為這樣的限制下，那些有資質的銀行的地位是非常特殊的，他們在吸收資金的方面上有很大的優(yōu)勢。這塊跟美國的情況是有所差別的。

　　That the license ability to really be able to open the bank is much,much more relaxed in the United States than in China.As a result,basically the dynamics of the larger national versus local or regional banks and other financial institutions,are more driven by basically the business dynamics and market dynamics.This is very different than in China,it is driven first and foremost and by regulation regime.So that makes the comparison of the banks really quite different in China than the United States.

　　在美國你想開一個銀行拿到牌照比中國要容易得多，這樣的話選擇更大的全國性質的銀行還是區(qū)域性的銀行和金融機構，更多的是取決于商業(yè)本身，而非市場的動態(tài)與環(huán)境影響。但是在中國，銀行的競爭不僅在于市場狀況，監(jiān)管的影響是最重要的。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　So would somobody investing in banks in China has to be an expert in Chinese regulation?

　　那么想在中國投資銀行業(yè)，投資者是否要成為中國監(jiān)管系統(tǒng)的專才？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Absolutely.

　　必須的。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Specialist.

　　成為專才。

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　If you don& #39;t decide to team us anything,I recommend you& #39;d best become the most knowledgeable specialist on the planet before you& #39;re really interested really invest in all them through the ups and downs and thicken things.And if you do understand them,they are good.It is far more profitable to own them over the long period of time.

　　對，如果你想投資一個領域的話，在你真的感興趣和投資之前，我建議你最好要成為這個行業(yè)和領域里全世界最了解它的人。如果你能真的懂它們，并且你找到的是一個好公司，它能給你在很長時間里帶來非常可觀的回報。

　　But in terms of the transition from the US to China,so I think a lot of people such as myself included went through a period of time to really try to understand the nature of the Chinese economy and the nature of the Chinese market,the nature of the Chinese company,investment in Chinese companies,one of those key learnings that I have.

　　談到投資重心從美國轉移到中國，很多人，也包括我自己，都經歷了一段時期，去努力了解中國經濟，中國市場，中國企業(yè)和投資中國企業(yè)的本質。

　　And it is not that obvious,is the role that the Chinese government played in that whole question equation.If you have been a successful investor in the United States for example,or in the developed market,you tend to come with a set of assumptions about the role of the government,and the role of the market participants.

　　其實我學習到的有一點很關鍵，而這一點不是顯而易見的，那就是中國政府在經濟當中所扮演的角色。如果你是一個在美國或者其他發(fā)達國家的成功投資人，你會對于政府的角色和其他市場參與者的角色有一個預先的設想。

　　And when you really looked into the Chinese market,that assumptions,you will see a lot of challenges,and so you might really from time to time arrive at views that are inconsistent with your own experiences,partially because historically the Chinese government and the US government,the Western government,performed very different rules.And that& #39;s one of the key aspect of really investing in china.It really requires much deeper understanding and also a systematic comparison to get rid of those biases.

　　而當我們真正深入中國市場觀察研究，這些設想就會遇到一系列挑戰(zhàn)，你會不斷的獲得與你以前經驗認知所不一樣的觀點和判斷。究其原因，起碼部分是因為中國和美國或者其他西方國家政府所運行的規(guī)則的不同。這是投資中國的核心要素之一，這真的需要深層次的認知，以及系統(tǒng)化的對比來消除偏見。

　　And that& #39;s why that you can really get rid of this typical global investor going to China either involved of the binding.You fear your enthusiasm or basically pessimistic kind of coming collapse of a China type of a mentality when things are not going too well.And so that is the education that most of international investors particularly when it comes to China would have to really go through and that is important.

　　很多國際投資者來到中國，他們要么是特別的樂觀，要么是特別的悲觀，特別是當他們來到中國投資并不是特別成功的時候，他們會陷入悲觀。因此，對于大多數想投資中國的國際投資者來說，都會經歷了解和學習中國的這個過程。

　　But bear in mind the other aspect to understand the Chinese economy is that the nature of the modern economy is its ability to generate sustained compounded economic growth.

　　但是要記住中國經濟的另一方面是，現代經濟的本質是能夠產生持續(xù)的復合經濟增長的能力。

　　Something that is only recently emerged as the human phenomena and this is where we talk about the zero-sum versus west millennial type of mentality.

　　這種（經濟持續(xù)復合增長的）現象直到最近才作為人類現象出現。這是為什么我們剛才講到了零和市場以及雙贏兩種不同的形態(tài)。

　　Now for the longest period of time that almost all natural,all human affairs are characterized by cycles.In a sense that everything goes up cycles,you know,we born,and then we grow,and then we die.So as trees goes up,and they die.It& #39;s so entropy basically always increase,energy goes from,you know,hot to cold,things from order to disorder,great businesses eventually losses edge.So that is the nature of things.And economy going through boom and bust.But something unique happened over several hundred years ago was the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.We began to see this phenomenon of continued sustained compounded economic growth.And that is really when that value investing become very important.

　　幾乎所有具有周期性的自然和人類發(fā)展，都是熵增的過程。從人的出生，成長，到死亡；包括貿易的增多、下降這些，都是非常自然的輪回和循環(huán)，就是熵值增加。能量從熱變冷，有序變無序，偉大的企業(yè)最終都將失去優(yōu)勢，這些都是非常自然的。經濟也有向好的或者衰退的時候。但是從幾百年前的工業(yè)革命開始我們看到了不一樣的發(fā)展，這種可持續(xù)的復合經濟增長發(fā)展，這個就是價值投資可以展現光彩的時候。

　　And that& #39;s why you& #39;ll begin to have a phenomenal record,such as the one produced by Warren Buffett,and now by a few other people as well.The basic logic behind that,as I said,over the long term,your investment return is likely to approximate the actual business return of the company invested.And so the fact that you& #39;re capable of generating that long-term result is a reflection of a changing nature economy.What really drives that phenomenon is something that is utterly fascinating.I literally spent 30-40 years thinking about that matter.

　　這就是為什么你能看到巴菲特包括現在一些其他投資人能有這么驚人的成績。背后的邏輯就像我剛才所說的，長期而言，你的投資回報其實就是近似于你投資公司的實際業(yè)務回報，也就是你所能創(chuàng)造的長期投資回報，其實就是整體經濟發(fā)展變化的反映。探究這些發(fā)展背后的驅動力，是一件極為吸引人的事情。我花了30-40年思考，才能讓我覺得我有了一定程度的認知。

　　Until I think I come to a certain knowledge,I wouldn& #39;t say I really know it at all.But I think what really produced that phenomena is a combination of free market,enterprise way of organizing social economic affairs and combine that one with the invention of modern science and technology.The combination of those two produced a modern form of economy.It is a paradigm shift.So what has happened in China is that roughly around 40 years ago China has really stumbled finally into that magic formula of free market economy,now with Chinese characteristic,of course,along with modern science and technology.

　　因此我不能說我完全懂，但是我認為能創(chuàng)造驚人長期投資回報現象的，是一個公式，即用自由市場競爭的方式來組織社會的經濟活動，加上現代科學技術創(chuàng)新發(fā)展而成的組合。這兩者的組合構建了現代經濟，這是一種范式轉移（范式轉移是指一個領域里出現新的學術成果，打破了原有的假設或者法則，從而迫使人們對本學科的很多基本理論做出根本性的修正）。大約在40年前，中國終于真正進入了有中國特色的自由市場經濟模式，這個過程伴隨著現代科學技術的發(fā)展。任何經濟一旦創(chuàng)造出了我剛剛提及的組合公式，就能創(chuàng)造出經濟復合增長發(fā)展的現象。

　　And any economy that has really strike a core and strike that magic formula began to produce the phenomena of compound economic reform.Now that has to combine with the stability of overall political environment to allow the market to enforce that a new economy to really release that power,and that is when sustained economic,I mean sustained investment record,can be possible in china.It& #39;s not always there.It& #39;s not always possible.And often it was a zero sum.But I think from that period on that a sustained win-win type of a compounded investment return becomes possible.

　　現在，這個公式還需要加上整體政治環(huán)境的穩(wěn)定，去支持給新經濟釋放活力的市場力量。這就是為什么在中國能有一系列現象級的可持續(xù)的成功投資回報記錄。任何經濟體如果真正采用這一神奇公式，都會開始產生出具有持續(xù)復合增長現象的經濟形態(tài)。但是我認為從40年前開始，一個可持續(xù)的、雙贏的復合投資回報變成了可能。

　　And notice that I didn& #39;t really include the political component of it,and most of the western observers believe that political democracy has to be part of the equation,except for the propaganda that political democracy wasn& #39;t there when that phenomenon began to take place in the west.In fact the political democracy happened later almost as a result not because of it.Anyway so that is another layer of understanding the phenomena of the investment opportunities in China.It could be interesting.

　　注意，這其中我并沒有包括它的政治部分。多數西方觀察家認為，民主政治必須成為這個公式的一部分，只是他們忘記了當這種現象在西方開始發(fā)生時，民主政治其實還不存在。因此事實上，民主政治只是這個現象的一個結果，而非它的原因。無論如何，這是理解中國投資奇跡的另一層面。這其實非常有意思。

　　4、新興科技是否會吸引你這樣的價值投資者？

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Okay,so why don& #39;t we talk more broadly about new trends in value investing?So among the many popular and up rising technological fields,such as 5G,Bitcoin,AI,has any of that attracted your interest as a value investor and why?

　　好，我們接下來在更廣維度來談一下價值投資的新趨勢?，F在有很多新興的熱門科技領域，比如說像5G、比特幣、AI等等，作為一名價值投資者，這些新的科技有沒有吸引到你？為什么？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well,as I said,if you& #39;re an investor,you really want find out what really influenced the change of your companies.If there& #39;s a one big forces that are really quite a prominent,is/it& #39;s the fast acceleration of technological changes.And of course,you need to be well aware of those mega technological trend.

　　像我之前說的，如果你是一個投資者，你一定要想辦法找出影響你標的公司發(fā)展和變化的事物。如果說要選一個大的主要趨勢，我覺得莫過于科學技術快速變化和迭代。當然你肯定要去很好地了解大的科技趨勢。

　　This current run in wave,and this started–called you know,40,50 years"the invention of the semiconductor",particularly integrated circuit.That really ultimately led to personal computer and a computation proliferation,the computation power to ordinary citizens.And from there,there& #39;s also the evolution of communication technologies and then the invention of the internet somewhat 25,30 years ago.Then from there the mobile internet.

　　現在的這一波科技發(fā)展，其實是起始于40、50年前半導體或者是集成電路的發(fā)明。這些科技成果使個人電腦得以誕生，并讓電腦算力可惠及每一個普通人。再往后，25-30年前，有了通信技術的發(fā)展，以及互聯網的誕生，之后又出現了移動互聯網。

　　So,the intersections of a compute,as well as in the omnipresent and instantaneous basically communication really led to this new phenomena of artificial intelligence and the data economy as a result of it.And so,this is a wave of technological change over the last 40 years has fundamentally altered the business landscape of all kinds basically.

　　因此而帶來世界的互聯互通，以及溝通的及時性與隨時性，從而讓人工智能和數字經濟的熱潮產生。而過去40年的這一波科技發(fā)展，對各個經濟領域都帶來了深刻的影響與改變。

　　And so,whatever kind of investor you are,you do need to be aware of that huge changes,and how do you deal with that in a sense.Both you& #39;re investing in businesses that are either well insulated from those technological change or in companies whose management team are quite capable of adaptive to have those technological change better than their competitors or in companies that are leading those changes or enabling those changes.So,that those changes are really on your side basically.

　　因此，不論你是什么樣的投資人，你需要意識到這些大的改變趨勢，以及知道如何去應對。當然，我們也投了一些這樣的公司，它們要么完全不受這些科技變革影響，要么公司的管理層比競爭對手能更為出色地應對科技變革，又或者你投資的公司本身就是在引領變革的。這樣，科技的變化對我們就是有利的。

　　And so,now do you have to be a true expert to the point of an engineer?I don& #39;t think you do.But you do need to be broadly aware all those big technology changes.Now,if you happen to be a venture capitalist in those field then of course you do.But if you are a generalist and study all of the businesses,you need to be aware of those trends.And how does it really impact in the industry and the companies that you& #39;re investigating.So,we are still really in the middle of that gigantic wave that started with the invasion of semiconductor.

　　但這樣，一個投資人需不需要成為專家，像一個工程師一樣了解這些技術呢？我認為不需要，但是你需要對這些大科技趨勢有比較好的宏觀認知。當然，如果你碰巧是某一細分領域的風險投資人，那你必須足夠了解相關技術。但如果你更偏宏觀，更專注商業(yè)的全局，那你只需了解這些變化的趨勢即可，理解這些變化對你所研究的行業(yè)和公司會產生什么影響。實際上，我們目前依舊處于40-50年前半導體發(fā)明而引發(fā)的這一波大的科技浪潮中。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　By the way,you know when the transistor is invented?

　　順便問一下，你知道晶體管是什么時候發(fā)明的嗎？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well,that& #39;s a longer I know that.

　　嗯，應該是很久以前了。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　That was 1942.

　　是1942年。

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　I know that.I know.Yes,yes.

　　沒錯。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　And the first IC(integrated circuit)is 1961.

　　最早的集成電路是1961年發(fā)明的。

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Yes.Yes.I& #39;m referring to the time.

　　是的，就是那段時間。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Right.

　　對。

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　They get integrated into industry.You know,so that really started this whole revolution,that we& #39;re actually still in the middle of it.And the current wave of neuron-network based artificial intelligence is just kind of the recent iteration and the data economy that as a result of it is a newest adaptation by industries in response to that new technology.We& #39;re going to see more of it as time really began to evolve from here.

　　就是這些發(fā)明引發(fā)了技術革命，而如前所說，我們仍在大潮中段。當前這波基于神經元網絡的人工智浪潮，也是這個大技術革命下的一種新的應用方式，包括數據經濟也是各行各業(yè)為適應這一新技術變革的產物。隨著時間的推移，我們將能看到更多的技術與應用進步。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Do you see opportunities to invest in new technologies?Do you have an example,maybe in your past where you did invest successfully on new technology?

　　講到新技術，你看到了什么投資機會嗎？在你過去的職業(yè)生涯當中，有沒有投資新科技的成功案例？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　We have,in the sense,back in the days I was trying to really learn about businesses.I invested in a number of startups.And so,I am fascinated about the technologies.And today we have somewhat smaller exposure to that,but it is facinating.It& #39;s not really you& #39;re not interested in technology.It& #39;s just it& #39;s not that easy to predict their impact because of the pace of a change.It does require different aptitude,different domain expertise,etc.And other things is we just have other set of easier opportunities.We just happened to be lucky.

　　從某種程度上講有的。還是回到我們對于商業(yè)研究上面。我曾經投資了一些初創(chuàng)公司，當時我沉迷于技術的發(fā)展，而今天，我們在這方面的投資相對較少。但技術的發(fā)展是讓我非常激動的。我們的這個側重，不在于我們是不是對技術投資感興趣，而是在于技術的變化節(jié)奏，以及帶來的相應產業(yè)影響是真的很難預測的。這需要不同的維度，不同的專業(yè)知識等等一眾其他事物來支撐投資決策。因此，我們選擇了其他一些對我們更容易的機會，而且我們也很幸運的抓住了那些機會。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Well,all right.So,let& #39;s talk about a specific example.A lot of smart people believe that renewable energy is the next big revolution and you& #39;ve done a lot of work on battery technology and BYD.So,is that something that you think about beyond batteries?What& #39;s your outlook for the electrical vehicle industry saying in the next five years or is it overheated now?Where is Tesla going?

　　好的，那接下來我們聊一個具體案例吧。很多聰明人都認為新能源是下一波的產業(yè)革命。你過去在電池技術領域也做了大量的研究，并投資了比亞迪。電池行業(yè)的變化基礎上，你看到了什么樣的大趨勢？未來五年，你認為電動汽車行業(yè)走向如何？現在是否過熱？你怎么看特斯拉？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Hahaha,so the car industry is mutinously kind of being impact by,you know,four or five big mega trend.The electrification,the right sharing,the autonomous driving,and the intelligent design,all of those are really going into the industry simultaneously.And so,that really had attracted more entrants and that really heated the competition.Also,against that broad background of climate change,current,carbon neutral revolution in the sense.

　　汽車行業(yè)是同時會受4到5個大技術趨勢發(fā)展影響的產業(yè)，比如電氣化，共享出行，自動駕駛，智能設計等等。因此這樣的大產業(yè)趨勢自然會吸引很多人進入這個產業(yè)，競爭也變得更加白熱化，還有整體環(huán)境氣候變暖和碳中和的一些大背景也刺激了這個產業(yè)的發(fā)展。

　　So,as a result,the industry that really haven& #39;t lasted for a 100 years,it& #39;s really being turned upside down.On the other side,it is the gigantic industry.So,other than housing,this probably one of the biggest industry.And so,the price is also big in the end.In the process though,the competition is going to become very,very intense.Still,you know,it does still have that characteristic of being a scale economy,as we talked about it at the beginning of our dialogue.So the survivors or the winners do need to have a certain scale in order to really to win in the end.

　　正是這些讓這個已經有100多年歷史的汽車工業(yè)，在過去這些年中發(fā)生了天翻地覆的變化。汽車可以說是除了地產外，市場最大的行業(yè)之一。因此，贏家的最后回報是最夠高的。這個領域的競爭極其激烈，特別是汽車行業(yè)還一直保有我們最開始所提到的規(guī)模經濟這個特點，因此，勝者為王，贏家需要有一定的市場規(guī)模為基礎才能夠贏得市場。

　　And so it is still early to predict who will be the ultimate winner.But it is not early at all to predict those megatrends are here to stay.So,five years,there& #39;ll be far more electric cars sold.We have seen the European countries began to declare a deadline to stop basically gasoline-powered cars.China is following that up,I think in due course.

　　現在預言誰能笑到最后還為時過早，但是這些大趨勢會持續(xù)存在，卻是毫無疑問的。五年之后，行駛在路上的電動汽車要比現在多得多。目前歐洲各國已經開始宣布停止燃料汽車銷售的最后期限，中國也在跟進。

　　And we were going to see those megatrends here to stay.And five years from now,that trend will become even more prominent than what it is today.But it is very difficult to predict the ultimate winner,and it continues to attract new entrants at this point.But I do think that the ones that are really precise unique technology have the scale,and have the right strategic focus,ultimately will do well.

　　在未來5年這些大趨勢依然會存在，而且可能會變得更加重要?，F在就預測誰會是最終的贏家還很困難，因為這個市場依舊在吸引很多的新進者。不過，我認為那些擁有獨家技術、具備一定規(guī)模、聚焦正確戰(zhàn)略的公司，將有可能笑到最后。因此，現在去預測誰是行業(yè)里的最終贏家仍然太早。不過，去預測這些大的行業(yè)趨勢是恰逢其時的。毫無疑問，未來的5年，電動汽車的銷售市場占比會更高。我們可以看到，歐洲國家已經開始宣布基本叫停汽油車的時間規(guī)劃了，而我相信中國在合適的時間也會跟進。因此5年后的這個主流趨勢，是非常明確的。對于市場的贏家，雖然難以預測，但是我相信那些擁有獨特技術，搶占足夠規(guī)模，找到正確的戰(zhàn)略著手點的公司能笑到最后。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Do you have a sense of which companies those are?

　　你感覺會有哪些公司勝出？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well,I bashed one.So,I like my money speak for itself.But we& #39;re not going to be the only one.That would be a few.It is a gigantic industry.

　　我有下注，我傾向于讓我的投資宣布我的選擇。當然，市場上會有一系列贏家，因為汽車行業(yè)是一個足夠大的市場。

　　5、如何看待美國亞裔群體的生存現狀？

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Okay,so what about,let& #39;s just talk briefly in these last eight or so minutes about your personal interest.You& #39;ve devoted efforts to improving equality and welfare of Asian-Americans and,given the recent elevated attention on this community,what are you doing and planning to do or think ought to be done for that community?

　　接下來還有大約8分鐘的時間，我們來談一下你的個人興趣。您對在美亞裔的平權地位與生活福祉的提升作出了非常大的貢獻，而這個群體近期也是備受關注的，能否談一談為這個群體，您現在正在做的和未來計劃要做的事情？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well,I was really,like many people around the Asian-American community in America,just utterly dismayed,heartbroken over the last year and a half,particularly since the later years of the Trump administration,it got worsened because of the pandemic,this new wave of anti-Asian and hate crimes.And by all statistic that instance of a racial discrimination against Asian-American is dramatically increased over the last year and a half.And for a variety of a different reasons,the pandemic,the Trump policies,the U.S./China tension,and the systematic historical root.

　　我們很多在美國的亞裔群體在過去一年半中，尤其是在自特朗普政府后期，以來是非常沮喪和痛心的。在疫情的影響下，這個群體的境遇更為惡化，加劇了新一波的反亞裔潮流和仇恨犯罪。根據統(tǒng)計數據，在過去的一年半中因為各種原因，比如疫情，特朗普政策，中美關系以及歷史性系統(tǒng)因素等等，對亞裔美國人的種族歧視急劇增加。

　　Suffice to say that many people in the Asian-American community are living in fears,literally physical fears today after being here for so many years of being such an important part of American experiment.And you know,particularly to the Chinese American community,after 150 years,it feels like the Chinese Exclusion Act is coming back again.And so I have been thinking long and hard,what can we do to change the paradigm?Now,I had a different experience when I came to America.

　　可以說很多的在美亞裔真的是生活在恐懼中，即便在美國生活了如此之久，并成為了這個國家發(fā)展的重要組成部分也如此。特別是對華裔美國人而言，感覺150年后，《排華法案》又卷土重來了。我一直在認真思考這個問題，怎么樣才能作出一些改變？這和我剛來到美國時是完全不同的體驗。

　　I had wonderful,wonderful experiences.America embraced me with open,warm heart,and I have gotten an enormous amount of opportunities,by Columbia University,by all the great people that I met along the way,by the opportunity I was given to be successful way beyond my wildest dreams when I first came here as an immigrant.Not a penny and nobody to speak the language to be where I am today.

　　我最初來美國的時候，有著非常好的體驗與經歷。當時的美國對我非常的開放和熱情，我沒有錢，英語也不怎么好，但仍然獲得了一系列很好的機會，比如在哥倫比亞大學讀書，遇到了這么多成功優(yōu)秀的人，而且給予我一個海外移民一系列難以想象的發(fā)展機會，才成為了今天的我。

　　And so one thing that I always believed about America is this.I think America is not defined by geography.It is not defined by race.It is not defined by culture,not defined by religion.America is defined by a set of ideas and ideals.Anyone,no matter your race,religion,culture,background,if you sign up to that set of ideas and ideals,can be America.I was one of those who believe in those ideas and ideals that became a successful American.And I want that experiment to really continue.

　　所以一直以來我認為，美國對自己的定義不是來自其地理邊界、種族、宗教或文化，而是來自某些人類共通的理念、精神和理想。只要你認可這些理念、精神和理想，那你就是美國人。我堅信，這樣的想法和理念，可以幫助你成為成功的美國人。我是那些相信這些想法和理想并在美國獲得成功的人之一，我也很希望這個實驗能持續(xù)下去。

　　And obviously,when you look at history,it was never a perfect experiment,and it was often marked by the cleansingness,sometimes actually outright cruel and malicious if you think about experiences with the African-Americans and all the other minorities,but I think America remains the only country on earth,so inspired and such constructed.And for that experiment to continue,it calls constantly to our better angels inside each one of us and to really restrict the worst instincts of all of us.

　　當然，回顧歷史，這并不是一個完美的實驗，常?？雌饋砗鼙孔?，如果你想想非裔或者所有其他少數族裔所經歷的掙扎和苦難，有些時期甚至會看起來相當殘忍或者惡劣。但是我仍認為，受人類共通之理念、精神和理想啟發(fā)而建立起一個國家——美國仍是世界上獨此一例。為了使這項偉大的實驗得以存續(xù)，我們需要不斷呼喚內心更良善美好的天使，也要對人性本能之惡時時警省。

　　And throughout a different period of time,people need to rise up to counter those worst instinct and face them down.And this is one of those periods again.So,I think the entire community of Asian-Americans have to come together.The entire American community need to really come together to really fight this wave of anti-Asian discrimination.

　　在歷史的不同時期，人們不時需要站起來對抗這些人性中最大的惡并直面它們。我們現在就處于這樣的歷史時期。我認為亞裔群體一定要團結起來，全體美國社會需要團結起來對這一波歧視亞裔的行為進行有力應對。

　　So along with a number of wonderful colleagues,we& #39;re cofounding a new national organization whose mission is to serve Asian-Americans in their pursuit of belonging and prosperity,free from discrimination,slander or violence.

　　所以我跟幾個優(yōu)秀的同事一起，共同創(chuàng)建了一個新的全國性組織，使命是幫助亞裔美國人找到歸屬感和富足的生活，不受歧視，誹謗或暴力侵害。

　　And one of the things that our community needs is enormous amount of funding.The statistic tells us that only 0.2%of all philanthropy in America goes to Asian-American causes,and we want to fundamentally change that.And hopefully with this new organization,new group of people,we really want to fundamentally change from that picture.

　　這需要很多的資金。數據顯示，美國只有0.2%的公益慈善基金是用于亞裔相關的項目中。因此我們希望從根本上改變這點，希望這個新的組織，新的團隊群體，能讓我們改變現狀。

　　And the other thing is that with the global economy,the center of the global economy,shifting from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean,the Asian-American,20 million strong,are going to play an increasingly important role to position America as the new Pacific economic power.And that group of people,more than other ones,if fully integrated as the very fabric of American society,could help lead America to better integrated with the rising economic ties in Asia.

　　另外一點是，全球經濟的重點逐漸從大西洋轉到了太平洋，這也意味著亞裔這兩千萬人將會扮演越來越重要的角色，幫助美國能更好成為太平洋地區(qū)發(fā)展的主要力量。如果這個群體能徹底融入美國社會的組織結構，將可以幫助和引導美國更好地融入亞洲的經濟增長大潮。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Okay,Li Lu that& #39;s terrific.It& #39;s a great note to end on.Unfortunately,we have two minutes left.Thank you very much for this really.Thank you very much for this really encyclopedic and enlightening talk.I think I have to turn it back over,however,to the M.C.For the last two minutes,right?

　　好，我覺得你剛才講的非常好，結尾論述很精彩。不過，現在只有兩分鐘的時間了。再次感謝李錄先生，謝謝你做了如此百科全書式的、頗具啟發(fā)性的談話，接下來的兩分鐘就交回給我們的主持人。

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Ok.Thank you for really having that class 28 years ago,without that class I wouldn’t know what I’m doing today,so thank you.

　　好的。28年前您的課程對我影響太大了，如果不是您的課，我現在都不知道我在做什么。謝謝你！

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Brilliant.Vivi,can you hear us?

　　不客氣?，F在就交回給Vivi。