周五相對較平靜地展開了行情走勢，但已經為美元恢復走強進行了熱身，一直維持到當天行情結束。美元出現看漲突破走勢，向上突破了4小時的價格均衡云圖壓制，雖然與日內的均衡圖有信號混合。觀察價格運行動能有助于確定在潛在多時間框架內價格運行動能的解讀。

在表現過于激動之前，我也注意到了早期在各貨幣對之間有些不一致的信號。歐系貨幣出現了相對美元的下行走勢，但英鎊兌美元和美元兌日元的走勢，似乎提示行情展開較慢—兩者有一些美元看跌背離的動能信號指示。因此要小心確認兩組歐系貨幣對的預期展望—歐系貨幣對與英鎊兌美元/美元兌日元—僅以防萬一市場自己陷入困境。積極的因素是，美元指數進一步被推高的表現應可以設為一個基準趨勢。

歐元兌日元情況略有些混亂。價格成功地從低位拉升但幅度不夠大。小時圖的動能沒有完全提供看跌背離信號，但30分鐘圖里有出現。然而，基于對兩個歐系貨幣對和英鎊兌美元及美元兌日元的上述觀察，這些情況往往意味著價格的下行走勢傾向。

澳元目前也是處于特別不確定的狀況。基本上價格運行符合預期—雖然下跌到0.7117的幅度略低于上周預期目標。但是，現在看漲看跌是一線之間…要仔細觀察。

預祝擁有一個獲利豐厚的交易周。

伊恩·科普塞

英倫金融研究部高級顧問

國際貴金屬外匯波浪權威

原文：

A relatively consistent outlook

Friday began relatively quietly but did warm up towards the end of the day with the Dollar regaining its strength. This has seen Dollar bullish breaks above the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds although there are mixed indications from the daily Clouds. Observing momentum will be very helpful in determining the potential for multiple time frame readings in momentum.

Before getting too enthusiastic, I do note that there appears to be some early dissention between the pairs. The Continental Europeans do appear to be set for losses against the Dollar but GBPUSD and USDJPY are hinting of a slower start – both having momentum indications that suggest some minor Dollar bearish divergences. It would therefore be prudent to confirm the outlooks in both groups – Continental Europeans versus GBPUSD / USDJPY – just in case the market has trapped itself. The positive factor is that the Dollar Index has pushed back higher again and that should set the underlying trend.

I am slightly mixed in EURJPY. It has managed to haul itself off from the floor but not by a significant margin. Hourly momentum hasn’t really proffered any bearish divergence but the 30-minute chart has. However, if my observations above in terms of the two Continental Europeans versus GBPUSD and USDJPY this would tend to suggest losses.

The Aussie is also in a particularly uncertain situation. It basically developed as expected – although the drop down to 0.7117 was a bit deeper than I normally seen for the outcome I suggested last week. However, there’s a fine line between bullish & bearish now… Watch that carefully.

Have a profitable week

Ian Copsey